DRC/KIVU | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation
Security
Insecurity has reached an alarming level in both North and South Kivu (see graph), prompting observers to predict new violence in the region and to warn of "imminent war." In North Kivu all indicators have been flashing red since Laurent Nkunda threatened to withdraw his 3000 troops from the Congolese army, accusing the government of not taking responsibility for them. An advisor to President Kabila spoke of an "orchestrated failure of the mixing." He accused Nkunda of never having the intention of integrating his fighters into the army and of continuing to "exploit" ethnic issues. Meanwhile, the FDLR accused Nkunda and Rwandan President Kagame of intending to create a satellite state in the east of Congo. Military sources estimate that during the last five months Nkunda has recruited between 3000 and 4500 additional men, especially among demobilized soldiers of the Rwandan army. At the same time, the mixing process has allowed him to establish his troops in strategic positions in North Kivu. The appointment, at the beginning of May, of Brig. General Mayala at the head of the 8th Military Region (North Kivu) was probably both a reaction by Kinshasa to the signs of an impending rebellion and a cause for Nkunda's threat to take back his men. Mayala is an experienced military commander loyal to Kabila. He replaces General Stiyalo who, like Nkunda, was affiliated with the Rwanda backed RCD-Goma during the war. For Henri Boshoff of the Institute for Security Studies, the appointment of Mayala "signals a move by the Kinshasa government that could either bring North Kivu to rebellion or result in the final disarmament of the FDLR." In mid-May a delegation of Nkunda's Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple met in Kigali to hold talks with representatives of the Kinshasa government under Rwandan mediation. According to an interview with Nkunda published on 13 June in the Congolese Soft International, the mixing process has not been resumed. He said that he had not been in contact with his interlocutor General Numbi for more than two weeks. Nkunda deplored that the integration of the 6th brigade to be deployed to South Kivu has not been realized, which, in fact, initially was never planned. Furthermore, he accused the FARDC (with the exception of the mixed brigades) of collaborating with the FDLR.
In South Kivu violence culminated with an FDLR/Rasta attack on the night of 26 May in the villages of Nyabuluze and Muhungu – killing 18 civilians (among them women and children) and wounding 27. The massacre took place after intensified action by FARDC seemed to have stabilized the situation especially in the territories of Walungu. According to notes left by the assailants on the victims' bodies, it was an act of revenge for interventions led against them by the FARDC. United Nations' Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and others strongly condemned the bloodbath and appealed to the Congolese government to pursue and bring those responsible for the atrocities to justice. Upset residents expressed their dissatisfaction, questioning how such an incident could occur in a zone under FARDC and MONUC protection. On 29 May they prevented an MONUC assessment team from reaching the scene by building up roadblocks and throwing stones.
The deteriorating situation in eastern DRC has been in line with joint FARDC / MONUC operations against the FDLR launched on 23 and 24 April in South and North Kivu respectively. This strategy aims at moving the FDLR away from populated areas and into the Virunga Mountains and the Kahuzi Park. By the end of May, military sources reported a significant reduction in the FDLR's capacity. For the population, the war against the Hutu militia and the ex-FAR is nothing but a scorched earth policy to clear the territory of people suspected of siding with the FDLR. By mid-May it was estimated that there were about 100,000 and 130,000 IDPs in North Kivu; their number is expected to increase as military interventions continue. MONUC developed a four point civilian protection plan focusing on the provision of humanitarian access to IDPs and on the sensitization of military authorities to respect international human rights. The Blue Helmets are fighting alongside a highly unpredictable partner. On 19 April during a reconnaissance patrol over Tebero region, one of their helicopters was hit by small-caliber fired by Nkunda's integrated men. Furthermore, the FARDC has been identified as the main perpetrator of human rights violations in the region. This especially holds true for the mixed brigades. Their assaults against civilians often reveal a disturbing ethnic dimension. On the night of 9 April at least 15 persons were arbitrarily executed by soldiers of the Bravo Brigade in Buramba village. The victims were allegedly shot in the head, eleven of them were Hutu.
In reaction to growing insecurity and violence against civilians, hundreds of residents and students have protested on several occasions in Goma, Bukavu, Uvira, Beni or Bunia. On 28 May, some deputies from North and South Kivu suspended their participation in the National Assembly until security in the region has been established. They accused the government that while people were being massacred it proposed an inter-communities round table instead of taking appropriate action. On 28 May, MONUC deployed three additional companies to the region. Shortly before, the UN Security Council had extended the mission's mandate until 31 December, stressing human rights issues. MONUC is currently struggling with a new scandal involving allegations that Pakistani peace-keeping troops had traded gold and sold weapons to Congolese militia groups they were meant to disarm. Another initiative to intensify military operations by the FARDC in order to enhance security in the Great Lakes regions was launched at a meeting in the framework of the Commission Tripartite Plus, which brought together the chiefs of defense staff from Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and Uganda. They agreed on joint military excursions to tackle negative forces – an option that subsequently was strictly rejected by the Congolese Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Political
Politics have remained tense in the DRC since the showdown between Bemba's opposition MLC and government forces in mid-March. Some hours after Bemba's departure to Portugal on 11 April, the public prosecutor asked the Senate to revoke Bemba's immunity on charges of threatening internal state security, murder, armed robbery and destruction of property. The opposition interpreted this timing as a political maneuver aimed at preventing Bemba's return. In fact, Bemba was accorded a 60-day term, i.e. until 10 June, to stay abroad without loosing his mandate or immunity. With the surprise election of Léon Kengo wa Dondo to Senate President on 11 May, an ally of Bemba's Union pour la Nation entered Congo's Parliament. On 11 June, the Senate announced that Bemba is free to return anytime. However, this is highly unlikely as long as he lacks a guarantee for his safety. Members of the opposition and especially of the MLC have been exposed to systematic harassment since the clashes in Kinshasa on 22-23 March. Tshisekedi's UDPS had therefore called the political and electoral process a failure, whereas on 16 April the MLC suspended its participation in the National Assembly. On 21 April, security forces ended the occupation of the MLC headquarters and Bemba's radio and television stations. However, on 23 April, the home of an opposition deputy was attacked by three men dressed in presidential guard uniforms. The walk out of opposition deputies on 24 April only ended after President Kabila had promised – under significant international pressure – to find a solution to their concerns. UN High Commissioner for Human rights Louise Arbour objected to the more than 150 persons arbitrarily arrested since the March crisis. It was thus an encouraging move when the Kinshasa/Gombe military court on 30 April acquitted former presidential candidate Marie-Thérèse N'Landu and her nine co-defendants. The tribunal ruled the charges against them (including the "possession of weapons of war" aimed at inciting an armed insurrection) as unfounded.
Like the opposition, Congolese media and journalists have been the target of many human rights violations. On 3 May, Journaliste en Danger (JED) called for an end to the state's violence against journalists and the media and for reforms to guarantee press freedom. Within the first three months of this year, JED had registered at least 27 attacks against journalists and media institutions including arbitrary arrests and detention, torture, open and anonymous threats, and the destruction of media facilities. One of the latest victims was Serge Maheshe, news editor of Radio Okapi , who was shot dead on 13 June in Bukavu presumably by two Congolese army soldiers. Nevertheless, there are efforts being made to enforce good governance and the rule of law. On 8 May, the Supreme Court annulled the election of 18 Minister Presidents and the results of one constituency for reasons ranging from fraud to counting errors. The governor of South Kivu suspended three division heads over improper supervision of construction and land use along the shores of Lake Kivu. Other initiatives have clearly been outweighed by the selfinterests of Kabila's government – for example, the case of a recent investigation by a parliamentary commission into the violence at the end of January in Bas-Congo. Local and international human rights groups have called the findings a whitewash.
Socio-Economic
People are agitated over the inadequate public services and the ramshackle infrastructure, which have not improved since the elections. Some fear that the country is on the verge of a social uprising. At the same time, the exploitation of the country's vast natural wealth has been going on without any regard for the well-being of the local population. In a recently published report Greenpeace urgently called for the stopping of the destruction of Congo's rainforest through illegal logging and accused international companies of "causing social chaos and wreaking environmental havoc." The planned review of mining contracts scheduled to start on 15 May has been postponed until early June for unknown reasons. Nevertheless, since mid-April, North and South Kivu governments have suspended the export of minerals in order to ensure the processing of the ore in the DRC. Furthermore, they launched a crackdown against unlicensed mineral exports by establishing roadblocks to check traffic on off-road tracks in the area of Goma. In a recent report on the DRC's economic situation the Fédération des Entreprises du Congo (FEC) pointed out that more than 80 percent of the operators in the mining sector did not respect the law – mostly Asian companies. The FEC further notes that the revival of the country's economy should be locally-driven and depends on political will as well as the end of impunity. Much hope has been linked to the re-launching of the Communauté Economique des Pays des Grands Lacs on 17 April. The CEPGL, which includes the DRC, Burundi and Rwanda, will eventually allow for the free movement of people and goods between the countries and at the same time is considered a key step in restoring peace and stability in the region.
The Kivu region is likely to return to war if Nkunda and the FDLR continue to spread insecurity. This would have dire consequences for the population as well as for the Congolese state and the Great Lakes region. In the case of a showdown between Kinshasa and Nkunda's forces, much will depend on the position of the FARDC towards the FDLR. If there is collaboration, which would not be the first time, Congo's relationship with Rwanda would suffer a serious blow with major implications for economic integration and regional security efforts. The longer the problem of Nkunda is not addressed, the more Kabila risks losing support in his hitherto stronghold. People are already accusing him of siding with Kagame and at times, calling for Bemba to save them.
FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an international consortium of development agencies, including the Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC).