Attachments
Operational Context & Analysis
Since the beginning of January 2025, clashes between elements of the March 23 Movement (AFC/M23), other armed groups, and the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) intensified in North and South Kivu. These clashes led to a rapid deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation, resulting in the capture of several strategic towns including Masisi, Minova, Sake, and the fall of Goma (the capital of North Kivu) on 27th January by the AFC/M23.
One of the core drivers of the conflict relates to the control over the rich mining resources of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including gold, tin, and coltan, which are vital to the global supply chain.1 Minova, for example, plays a crucial role in supplying Goma through its port on Lake Kivu. At the same time, the armed group reportedly took control of the mining town of Lumbishi, a strategic site for natural resource exploitation. The fighting in DRC also has connections with a decade-long ethnic conflict.
Throughout the month of January, the escalation in conflict and violence triggered mass displacement, including families and communities that were displaced multiple times. As the front-line of the conflict advanced, non-essential United Nations and non-governmental organization personnel in Goma began to be evacuated. On January 26, the AFC/M23 announced the closure of Goma airport and clashes soon erupted across Goma between AFC/M23, the FARDC and their allies.
On January 30, after several days of intense fighting, Goma fell under AFC/M23 control, including the airport and the provincial government headquarters. For nearly a week, Goma was plunged into a total blackout, with no access to running water, electricity, or the internet, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
As of 7th of February 5, 2025, reports indicate that the fighting killed over 2900 people,2 injured more than 30003 people and displaced 500,000 people, while road closures and insecurity further restrict humanitarian access.4 A relative calm is now reportedly observed, with shops and businesses starting to reopen, though it remains fragile and volatile.
As the conflict intensified, non-state armed groups and various actors, including community members and internally displaced persons (IDPs), reportedly dismantled existing IDP sites. Some individuals returned home, while others sought refuge in schools, churches, with host families, or at improvised collective sites in Goma. Concurrently, the AFC/M23 encouraged displaced individuals to return to their home areas. However, no assessments have been conducted to ensure these areas are safe or that conditions for a dignified return are met.
Now established in Goma, AFC/M23 and its political wing, the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), is consolidating their control over the city by implementing a new administration. Essential public services, including healthcare, education, and security, remain at risk of significant disruption, though efforts to progressively re- establish them are underway. Notably, AFC/M23 leaders have invited civil servants to resume their duties starting February 10, 2025.
Across the country, more than 21 million people already required humanitarian aid before the latest escalation of the crisis, one of the highest figures worldwide. Overall, 6.7 million people were already internally displaced in the DRC including 4.6 million in South and North Kivu. In the northeastern province of Ituri, where conflict is ongoing, including attacks against civilians by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebel group, there are 1.8 million IDPs. Additionally, the DRC hosts 520,000 refugees and asylum seekers from neighbouring countries5. The UN World Health Organization (WHO) is warning of potential disease outbreaks, including mpox, cholera and measles6. Adding to the crisis, the 90-day suspension of US humanitarian funding is severely impacting food security, sanitation and relief efforts.
1 Interactive map on mines in RDC (IPIS)
2 https://youtu.be/R-aD8mOCbI0https://youtu.be/R-aD8mOCbI0?si=iMoFFf93fBY02Y6t?si=iMoFFf93fBY02Y6t 3 SRSG allocution at the 37th special session of the Human Rights Council