Attachments
Key Messages
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FEWS NET estimates that between 14-14.99 million people will need urgent humanitarian assistance during the lean season from October to December 2024, which coincides with the second agricultural season (S2). Although the number of people in need will decrease in the post-harvest period (January-February 2025), needs will remain high in conflict zones (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Mai-Ndombe provinces), as well as in the northern areas of the river basin where severe flooding has occurred in recent agricultural seasons.
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Household food access remains a major concern in the four conflict zones mentioned above. The persistence of security incidents has caused the displacement of about 6.29 million people, according to OCHA, in addition to the ongoing disruption of livelihoods of households on the move and for those in these areas. The biggest trouble spots are in the territories of Djugu (Ituri), Rutshuru, Masisi, and Lubero (North Kivu), Kalehe (South Kivu), and Kwamouth (Mai-Ndombe).
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Following discussions with humanitarian agencies and based on access to new information on current and future food aid distributions, FEWS NET believes that food assistance is mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity among displaced populations in Djugu, Masisi, and Rutshuru territories to a greater extent than compared to estimates in previous assessments. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected during the lean season, when access to food and income will be minimal during S2 and food assistance will prevent worse acute food insecurity.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in areas at risk of flooding, notably in the Congo River basin and along the Lakes. The 2024-2025 first agricultural season (S1) rains caused flooding in several regions. Although the S2 seasonal rainfall forecast does not anticipate the historic levels observed over the past two years, cumulative rainfall levels could still cause flooding, leading to crop losses, reducing access to food, and affecting household livelihoods.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 16, 2024.