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Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 18

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WTNT34 KNHC 090233
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HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DENNIS WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES HAVANA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE CANCELLED SATURDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY NORTHWARD TO EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DENNIS NEAR HAVANA AND INTO THE STRIATS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE UPON REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH. TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN SQUALLS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MIAMI AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CUBA AND CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. HIGHER VALUES OF STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND INLETS. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN