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Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 15A

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WTNT34 KNHC 081149
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HURRICANE DENNIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DENNIS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS... VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 800AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. DENNIS HAS MADE A SLIGHT WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERAL MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST... ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF DENNIS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART