Attachments
RISK ANALYSIS AND SELECTION OF EARLY ACTIONS
Priority danger and its historical impact.
The climate of Côte d'Ivoire varies from equatorial to semi-arid, influenced by the movement of the Intertropical Front (ITF), which is controlled by the Saint Helena and Azores anticyclones. ITF seasonal changes impact wind and rainfall patterns, creating separate wet and dry seasons. The warming of the South Atlantic Ocean is often linked to an increase in rainfall, especially in the northwest during the rainy season (May to September). Conversely, the El Niño phenomenon tends to reduce overall precipitation, especially along the northern and southern coasts. Between 1991 and 2020, annual precipitation varied between 1,000 mm and 2,300 mm, with the lowest levels in the northeast and highest along the coast. Analysis of data from 1990 to 2020 shows fluctuations in precipitation, with a general downward trend.
The Côte d'Ivoire Climate Risk Assessment highlights the growing threat of floods and epidemics, which have become major risks affecting the country.
Between 1985 and 2005, floods were relatively rare, affecting fewer than 7,000 people per decade, largely due to heavy annual rainfall. However, from 2005 to 2020, the number of people affected climbed to 67,403, with extreme flooding occurring on average every five years (Fig. 3).
The June 2024 floods in Côte d'Ivoire had devastating consequences, affecting human lives, infrastructure and economic stability. Deaths and injuries were reported, particularly in Abidjan, while homes, roads, bridges and essential public services such as water and electricity suffered severe damage. Economically, businesses have been disrupted, markets destroyed, and agricultural livelihoods severely affected. The health sector is also under pressure, with contaminated water sources fueling cholera and typhoid outbreaks, while stagnant water has increased the spread of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Mass displacement has also exacerbated vulnerabilities, leaving thousands of people homeless. These recurrent floods are due to rapid urbanization, the destruction of natural buffer zones such as wetlands and inadequate drainage infrastructure, which increase the country's exposure to extreme weather events.
At the same time, recurrent droughts and erratic rainfall pose a growing threat to agriculture, food security and water availability. Recognizing the emergency, the 2023 National Multi-Hazard Humanitarian Emergency Plan workshop identified natural hazards, armed conflict, epidemics, socioeconomic instability, and industrial risks as key priorities. Between 2011 and 2023, floods affected 45,903 people, killing 245 people, affecting 6,457 households, and destroying 335 homes. In addition, 20 per cent of social infrastructure (health facilities, housing) and 57 per cent of sanitation systems were damaged. The peak of the flood season – mid-June for the main season and October-November for the short season – poses increased risks for Agboville, Aboisso and Dimbokro, which remain highly vulnerable due to their proximity to the Agneby, Comoé and N'Zi rivers. Without urgent action, these climate-related risks will continue to intensify, further threatening lives and livelihoods.
The locality of Aboisso faces significant flood risks due to its proximity to the dam, especially when the gates are open. To mitigate these risks, it is crucial to set up an early warning system in collaboration with dam managers. This system will provide timely alerts to the public, allowing them to prepare and take the necessary safety measures in advance.
By improving communication between dam managers and local communities, this system will help reduce the impact of flooding and build regional resilience to climate hazards. Proactive risk management through early warnings will not only protect lives and livelihoods but also support longterm adaptation to climate-related challenges in Aboisso.
Explain what risks have been selected for this protocol and why
To address flood risks in Côte d'Ivoire, RCCI plans to implement a simplified Early Action Protocol (EAP) to mitigate several key impacts identified in collaboration with communities and government technical services.
First, the loss of life, which has exceeded 245 deaths in recent years, will be addressed through census and evacuation measures, by relocating at-risk populations to host families. Second, the health risks posed by floods, such as waterborne diseases and skin infections, will be mitigated through the distribution of emergency WASH kits to vulnerable communities, including displaced families and those refusing to be evacuated. Third, to limit the destruction of homes due to water intrusion, community-filled sandbags will be distributed to strengthen the foundations of homes and reduce flood penetration for those who remain in the affected areas. Finally, to protect livelihoods from the loss of flooded fields and food reserves, a conditional and non-restrictive cash transfer programme will be implemented, targeting the most vulnerable households, whether they are displaced or staying at home.
Although Aboisso is not one of the localities selected for the simplified Early Action Protocol (EAP), it will remain under close surveillance. An effective early warning system will be put in place, incorporating awareness campaigns to help communities secure their livelihoods before dam gates are opened. Through this proactive approach, the RCCI aims to significantly reduce the impacts of flooding on affected populations while improving the resilience of communities to climate hazards.