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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Cereal production in 2017 forecast well below average level
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Cereal imports in 2017/18 marketing year expected to remain high
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Maize prices increased in October, while prices of other main staples declined
Cereal production in 2017 forecast to decline from last year
Cereal production for 2017 is anticipated to reach 200 000 tonnes, about 4 percent below last year’s level and well below average. The decline mainly reflects a reduced rice crop output. Yields of the 2017 first and second season rice crops were affected by excess precipitations caused by concurrent hurricanes and tropical storms during the months of September and October. Rice output is estimated at 190 000 tonnes, about 5 percent below the 2016 level and well below average. Production of the 2017 main season maize crop, harvested in August, is anticipated at below-average levels, reflecting lower plantings. By contrast, second and third season maize crops, to be harvested from December and February, respectively, are progressing favourably. Overall, maize output for 2017 is anticipated at 10 000 tonnes, about 11 percent above last year’s level, but still below average. Low profit margins continued to depress maize planting for the second consecutive year.
Cereal imports in 2017/18 marketing year expected to remain high
Cereal imports, mainly maize and wheat, in the 2017/18 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at about 1.2 million tonnes, slightly below last year’s record level, but well above the five-year average. The high level of imports is mainly due to the strong domestic demand for feed maize and the contraction in 2017 rice output.
Maize prices increased in October, while prices of other main staples declined
Maize prices continued to increase in October as seasonal trends were pressured by the below average output during the main first season. By contrast, reflecting the adequate supplies from imports, prices of rice and beans declined in October. Prices of both commodities were below their levels from a year earlier.
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