Attachments
Description of the Event Date of event
17-01-2024
What happened, where and when?
After the elections on January 14, 2024, the electoral commission announced a resounding victory for the outgoing president and governors, with low voter turnout of 16.30%. However, the opposition disputed the results and accused the government of ballot stuffing and fraud, leading to widespread demonstrations across the country. The protests turned violent, with protesters blocking roads, setting fire to buildings and vehicles, and clashing with police and the military. This resulted in injuries and arrests, leading to further instability and a night-time curfew bieng imposed.
The Comorian Red Crescent volunteers provided emergency medical assistance to those injured in the clashes, with some patients requiring transfer to hospitals. Schools, markets, and businesses were maintained closed, and internet access was disrupted, exacerbating the situation.
Despite the Supreme Court's confirmation of the election results on January 24, opposition leaders continued to dispute the outcome and call for further protests. The government imposed a 5-day curfew and deployed a large number of security forces to maintain order, anticipating further unrest.
Scope and Scale
In the wake of the controversial election results in the Comoros, tensions continued to rise across the country, fueled by opposition demands for a fair and transparent electoral process. As the potential for further unrest loomed, the Comorian RC remained on high alert, ready to provide assistance to those impacted by the violence and turmoil. According to the situational analysis, two scenarios were expected to unfold:
In the scenario # 1, it was anticipated a low impact with limited protests that could have occurred in the aftermath of the final results' announcement, largely contained by government forces. It was analyzed that although the situation would remain volatile, the impact was expected to be localized, affecting fewer than 100 people.
Scenario #2 was expected with high impact. This scenario anticipated the possibility of widespread riots and civil unrest which could not be ruled out, as protesters and security forces clash on a larger scale. The government could cut off communication networks to prevent escalation, and widespread destruction and displacement of people was anticipated, jeopardizing the economy and basic needs of the population. Hundreds of lives and livelihoods assumed to be at stake, with increased arrests, injuries, and displacement likely to ensue. This scenario was backed by an analysis of the past coup since independence of the country and the various pre-electoral socioeconomical dynamic that could feed the demonstrations.
In the above two most likely scenarios, the NS planned this intervention in an initial one month and according to the scenario 1 which materialized with limited escalation of the violence. The calls from the opposition for further protest was reported in the country but didn't spread long-term or high scale of unrest. The situation calmed down within two weeks instead of escalating into widespread violence. This operation remained under scenario 1 and within the planned anticipated scope.