Attachments
A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
On 15 July 2022, abnormal activity of the Karthala volcano in the Comoros was recorded by the Karthala Volcano Observatory (KVO), which manifested itself as persistent microseisms on the western flank of the island of Ngazidja. Regular observation of the volcano's activities has been initiated by the observatory with regular reports of continued seismic activity. Considering this worrying information transmitted by the Karthala observatory and according to the National Emergency Plan related to Karthala's activities in the country, the Minister of Interior in charge of security launched the yellow alert on 17 August 2022. The country was thus entering the phase of volcanic vigilance.
On 22 August, the Directorate of Civil Security convened the first information meeting of all risk and disaster management actors, including the Comoros Red Crescent, to discuss the immediate actions to be taken following the alert.
In the Fixed Command Post meeting on 5 September, the Karthala Volcano Observatory showed that the evolution of the volcano was worrying as the seismic movements had decreased and the magma pockets gone from 12km deep to 1.5km and insisted on vigilance as the magma could move quickly to the surface which could surprise everyone in case there was no preparation then. The KVO experts showed that the reaction of the Karthala volcano could be unpredictable. According to their analysis, it meant that there was very little control and certainty over whether the orange or red phase would be triggered. The level of volcanic alert might therefore last for days, or weeks or even a year but could also return to a normal situation. The nature of the eruption was not known in advance, but several risks were already identified by the KVO based on current observations and historical data:
• Risk of eruption through lava flows that required the evacuation of the population living in the areas at risk,
• The propagation of volcanic ash which could spread everywhere depending on the wind direction and pollute the water,
• Gas emissions (CO2) which are a mortal danger for the population living near the volcano or approaching the volcano,
• Seismic tremors which would directly threaten all infrastructures and lahars which are also dangerous for the population.
According to the Karthala Observatory, four regions of the island of Ngazidja were at risk: Mbadjini in the south, Hambou, Bambao and Itsandra in the centre, with an estimated population of 293,610 inhabitants and an estimated displaced population of 44,042 people. A total of 115 villages in the risk zones were all at risk from any type of impact.
Previous volcanic eruptions have also shown the vulnerability of the water supply system which were left exposed regardless of the nature of the volcanic eruption.
The first stakeholders' meeting, under the leadership of the Minister of Interior in charge of civil security, retained two important decisions:
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Inform the population on time, to avoid panic and avoid any camping activity around the volcano (before impact).
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Recommend to all sectors to proceed to a needs assessment for the elaboration of an urgent response plan (in case of impact).
However, it is essential to note that certain factors in the analysis of the situation underline the need to be prepared but also to strengthen the emergency response capacity of the NS in a context of unpredictability of impact. Indeed, the lack of equipment for geo-seismic surveys does not improve the accuracy of the information and could lead to serious consequences for the population in the event of an unprepared orange or red alert level. This inaccuracy coupled with the KVO conclusions mentioning the unpredictability of the eruption and the type of eruption further increases the risk context of the exposed populations. These elements may lead to a late warning to the population and the implementation of measures or to mitigation measures of the above-mentioned risks of impacts which will be done late or too little time before the impact. However, given the impact of the latest eruptions in the country and the evolution of the volcano's activities since 15 July, the last meeting with the KVO underlined the urgency to prepare for a potential impact and to be prepared for all eventualities.
This means that the Comoros Red Crescent is automatically integrated into the implementation of the government's priority decisions, but also has to ensure the preparedness of its teams and communities.