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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Output of 2025 main maize crop below average due to contraction in plantings
- Aggregate maize production estimated near average in 2024
- Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2025
- Maize prices higher year‑on‑year in February 2025
- About 8.2 million people estimated to be in need of food and nutrition assistance
Output of 2025 main maize crop below average due to contraction in plantings
Planting of the 2025 minor season maize crop is underway. Higher year‑on‑year prices of both white and yellow maize across markets in the first quarter of 2025, in line with international trends, are expected to encourage sowings and planted area is anticipated at an above‑average level. Weather forecasts for the May to July 2025 period point to average rainfall amounts across the main producing areas of Meta, Tolima, Sucre and Valle del Cauca, providing conducive conditions for crop development.
The harvest of the 2025 minor paddy crop, which accounts for about 35 percent of the total annual production, started in March. Abundant precipitation amounts between December 2024 and February 2025 in some main producing central regions saturated soil moisture levels and had a negative impact on crop development, curbing yield prospects. Lower year‑on‑year prices at planting time, from August to November 2024, discouraged sowing intentions and planted area is anticipated to contract year‑on‑year and remain near the five‑year average.
Planting operations of the 2025 main season paddy crop are underway and are expected to conclude in May. The decline of domestic rice prices, following the 2024 above‑average outturn, discouraged farmers’ planting intentions and planted area is anticipated to fall below the high level of 2024, but to remain at near‑average levels. Weather forecasts for the second quarter of 2025 point to average rainfall amounts, likely providing conducive conditions for crop development.
Aggregate maize production estimated near average in 2024
Harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crop, amounting for about 60 percent of the annual production, was finalized in March 2025. Despite the growing demand for maize by the domestic feed industry, the area planted is estimated below the 2024 above‑average level. The reduction is due to lower year‑on‑year prices at planting time and large availability of imported grains, mainly from the United States of America, the main exporting partner. Abundant rainfall amounts between November 2024 and February 2025 in key producing northern coastal regions partially offset the negative impact of localized dry spells in the last quarter of 2024 and yield prospects are overall favourable. Although official estimates are still not available, aggregate maize production in 2024 is preliminarily estimated near the five-year average by the Federation of Cereal Producers (FENALCE).
Paddy production in 2024 is estimated at 2 million tonnes, about 6 percent above the previous five‑year average. Higher year‑on‑year prices encouraged the expansion of planted area, mainly in eastern llanos regions, and favourable weather conditions in the second quarter of 2024 boosted yields of main season crops.
Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2025
About 85 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2025 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at an above‑average level of 9.4 million tonnes. The high level is mainly due to rising domestic demand of maize by the poultry and pork feed sectors. Wheat imports for human consumption are anticipated to rise, in line with the demographic and economic growth. On the contrary, rice imports in the 2025 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at a below‑average level, reflecting abundant domestic supplies from the 2024 above‑average production.
Maize prices higher year ‑ on ‑ year in February 2025
Prices of white and yellow maize were nearly stable or declined in most markets during the first quarter of 2025, reflecting improved availability of grains since the start of the main season harvest. In March 2025, prices were about 12 percent above their level of one year earlier. Wholesale prices of wheat flour declined by 4 percent in March 2025, due to large availability in local markets, and they were lower than one year earlier, in line with increased year‑on‑year import volumes in 2024. Rice prices were stable or declined in the first three months of 2025 and were below the previous year’s level in most markets as a result of improved supplies from the above‑average imports in 2024 and large stocks from the abundant paddy outturn harvested in 2024.
About 8.2 million people estimated to be in need of food and nutrition assistance
According to the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan Update by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), about 8.2 million people are estimated to be in need of food and nutrition assistance in 2025 , up from the 7.3 million people estimated in 2024. This figure includes refugees and migrants as well as national host communities and people affected by armed groups’ violence, climate shocks and complex migration dynamics. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of mid‑2024, about 7 million people were internally displaced in the country.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .