Territorial expansion and disputes between armed groups caused 21 mass displacement events, affecting at least 15,644 people (5,266 families) over July-end September. Antioquia, Bolívar, Cauca, and Chocó were the most affected departments. 60,700 people were reported displaced between 1 January and 30 September this year, compared to 27,000 in all of 2020. Active conflict, threats and intimidation, forced recruitment, and killings perpetrated by armed groups against the civilian population are the main events leading to mass displacement. In the month of August, 17% of people displaced in the Pacific region returned home -- needing to tend to crops and resume livelihood activities -- despite continuing insecurity. They need protection and humanitarian assistance across all areas of humanitarian intervention, also because of the rainy season and natural disasters such as flooding. Some 50,500 people remain displaced, mainly women, children, Afro-Colombians, and indigenous people.
Food insecurity, largely linked to drought and climatic factors, is expected to further deteriorate in Madagascar over the next months, with more than 1.3 million people projected in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or higher levels over October -- December. The rainy season is expected to start in November, with near average rains projected to last until April/May 2022. Rainfall is likely to affect access to communities affected by food insecurity in southern Madagascar, where poor conditions of dirt roads impacted by rain could make some areas inaccessible and delay the delivery of assistance. Some communities in the Tolagnaro and Amboasary-Atsimo districts of Anosy region are not connected by roads and are considered hardest to reach as they can be reached overland only by foot and/or canoe. People in southern Madagascar are heavily dependent on food assistance, and any delays in assistance are likely to lead to worse outcomes, particularly in Amboasary-Atsimo district, where up to 30,000 people are projected in Catastrophe (IPC-5).
Poverty and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly in the Dry Zone (southern Sagaing, western and central Mandalay, most of Magway region) and the Delta region (south of the Dry Zone, between Bago and Yangon, and the Rakhine mountain range). These regions are populous and reliant on agriculture as a main source of income. Prices of critical agricultural inputs including seeds and fertilisers have increased, while crop prices have dropped, affecting income forfarmers. The economic situation in the country continues to slowly deteriorate because of political instability**. **Humanitarian needs have increased since the coup and subsequenteconomic decline in urban areas, including in Yangon and Mandalay. Some populations have started to receive assistance, though the response remains focused on conflict-affected regions. There is a risk of overlooking vulnerable households in the Dry Zone and the Delta regions, as they are areas that do not usually receive humanitarian aid.