Colombia + 4 more

Colombia: Outlook for September - February, Risk Overview – September 2020

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In Colombia, the COVID-19 crisis is occurring in the complex context of humanitarian needs driven by the internal armed conflict and the migration and refugee crisis.

This risk report seeks to inform humanitarian decision-makers and facilitate response planning through an analysis of:

• Possible evolution of the crisis dynamics in Colombia over the next six months in 2020 and into early 2021

• Factors that will likely provoke a change in the situation

• Humanitarian needs which are likely to arise if the risks materialize.


Risk analysis is the process of identifying and unpacking potential future events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment. Risk analysis is not a forecast and does not aim to predict the immediate future, but aims at identifying possible futures with significant negative humanitarian consequences.

ACAPS’ risk analysis aims at helping humanitarian decision makers understand potential future changes in the context and their humanitarian impact. By exposing probable future developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in response planning and preparedness. The methodological basis for this risk analysis is described in ACAPS Risk Methodology Note (read more about ACAPS risk methodology). It is based on a secondary data review (SDR) and supplemented by expert interviews.

Risk analysis is not an exact science. An event identified by one analyst as a hazard might be identified by another as a trigger for a different event which the second analyst considers as the hazard. Risk analysis depends on a solid understanding of the context and on investigating the interaction of variables that cause or resist change.

Risk is a function of severity and probability. The risk posed by a potential event increases as either the expected severity of the event increases or the probability that it will occur increases. The probability of a risk does not need to be high for it to be of concern.

Each risk presented in this report is introduced by a rationale explaining the risk and its context. The identified triggers are a series of factors and events that could contribute to the materialization of the risk. The impact section describes the likely humanitarian consequences of each risk.