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Despite the signature of the Peace Agreement between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Government of Colombia in 2016, the country is still dealing with the consequences of five decades of violence. There are 9.5 million victims of armed conflict, out of which 8.5 million are victims of forced displacement that require reparation and reintegration support (Victim's Unit, GoC).
Victims of violence face high levels of poverty, with 51% of persons being under the poverty line, which is much higher than the rate of the national population (39%). Regarding multidimensional poverty, they face deprivations mainly in indicators of education, access to public services, and the labour market. For instance, 15,5% are unemployed and 77% work in the informal economy (Common Country Analysis, 2023).
Accordingly, several activities continue to be implemented by the State in the framework of the Victims and Land Restitution Law and Peace Agreement of 2016, to guarantee the access of victims to their right to truth, justice, reparation and non-repetition, including the creation of a legal framework, the implementation of programs and projects in the territory, the promotion of participation of victims and their organizations, and the design of a strategy towards durable solutions for IDPs. Likewise, reintegration of former combatants and peacebuilding strategies will be implemented.
Colombia's context is highly marked by criminal violence of non-state armed groups which control illegal economic activity including drug trafficking and illegal mining, thus increasing violence in regions historically affected by conflict. These factors trigger killings of social leaders, unlawful confinements, forced displacements and a high risk of human trafficking and child recruitment (HNO 2023).
The Government of Colombia (GoC) will continue to implement the 2016 Peace Agreement signed with the FARC guerrilla and other legal frameworks such as the Victims Law, concerning the reintegration of former combatants, the reparation of victims, and supporting GoC capacity-building to develop actions of peace-building and durable solutions.
The Government of Colombia started the implementation of the Total Peace Strategy by establishing a dialogue roundtable (November 2022) with the National Liberation Army (ELN) in order to negotiate a peace accord. As of August 2023, a bilateral ceasefire - expected to last until January 2024 - was established. This context sets several challenges for the GoC such as the continuity of armed actions given that the group's lack of a unified command has made it difficult to negotiate in the past. Individual factions often act autonomously - at times over the objections of high commanders. Additionally, ELN leaders have indicated that the group's financing activities - which the government says include kidnapping, extortion, drug trafficking and illegal mining - will not stop. The UN Verification Mission in Colombia will monitor the effort under a mandate from the Security Council, and international cooperation could be required to provide assistance during the different stages of the negotiation, including technical assistance in the dialogue.
The war in Ukraine continues to affect the global economy, resulting in high inflation and affecting the capacity of crisis-affected communities to cope in Colombia. Additionally, armed conflict incidents have experienced a surge: 67 humanitarian alerts have been issued by OCHA in 2023, with the two most common events being forced displacement and confinement, and 714,900 people were affected by armed violence between 1 January and 24 October 2023 (OCHA Monitor, 2023).
Natural hazards and the impact of climate change constitute key drivers for migration and displacement and deepen the crisis in regions where people are negatively impacted by multiple shocks; 152,500 people have been impacted between 1 January and 24 October 2023, mainly by heavy rain and floods, droughts, hurricane season, among others (OCHA Monitor, 2023). With the start of the El Niño phenomenon (expected to be as adverse as the one in 2015/16), the following impacts are expected: droughts and rises in temperature, scarcity in water sources, increases in vector-borne diseases, reduced access to school, and decrease in river flows affecting food sources and supply chains. Therefore, support for climate change adaptation action, measures, and resources to avert and minimize displacement and strengthen people's resilience is also required.
Accordingly, the people in need figure for 2024 has increased to 8.3 million people (HNO 2024, preliminary data). Moreover, multiple shocks (regions impacted simultaneously by armed conflict, natural hazards and also experiencing the arrival of migrants in destination, or in transit to the US) continue to be a determining factor in the crisis context, impacting humanitarian access, informal employment, and lack of availability of high-quality basic services.
Colombia hosts an estimated 2.89 million migrants and refugees from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (Migración Colombia), and an increasing number of migrants in transit - more than 500,000 people (who additionally were reported to enter Panama irregularly through the Darien, according to the National Migration Service Panama). This context has had a significant effect on the country considering that these populations arrived in areas with existing economic needs and institutions with limited capacity for appropriate responses, and since these irregular flows are also associated with illegal armed groups, drug traffickers and smugglers that put migrants at a higher risk. Despite the reopening of the border between Colombia and Venezuela as a result of the reactivation of diplomatic relations, after more than four years of closure, massive returns are not expected in 2024. IOM and the Interagency Group for Mixed Migration Flows (GIFMM) foresee that by the end of 2024, nearly 3.2 million Venezuelans will be residing in Colombia.
IOM's response is based on the following key planning assumptions:
- Communities affected by the armed conflict and/or inhabitants of rural areas will continue to have scarce income-generation opportunities;
- Significant restraints in accessing basic services and goods and reduced livelihoods;
- Implementation of the Peace Agreement will continue with an emphasis on community stabilization and peacebuilding;
- Human mobility will remain dynamic, specifically internal displacement due to internal conflict and natural hazards;
- Humanitarian needs will remain high;
- In post-conflict provinces, there will be opportunities to support durable solutions; and
- The security conditions will deteriorate during peace negotiations with illegal armed actors, as has happened during previous peace processes.