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Approximate date of impact
According to the Colombian Geological Service (SGC), the alert level of the Nevado del Ruiz Volcano changed from Yellow level (I) to Orange level (II) on 30 March 2023, which represents a probable eruption in matter of days or weeks, prompting local authorities to take preparatory, mitigation and communication actions.
What is expected to happen?
The Colombian Geological System (SGC), attached to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, is the entity in charge of investigating and monitoring geological phenomena that generate hazards nationwide. Therefore, it is the entity responsible for issuing reports and changing the alert level of the Nevado del Ruiz Volcano. The SGC is permanently monitoring the volcanic activity in the country. Based on its monitoring, since 24 March 2023, a significant increase in seismic activity associated with rock fracturing within the volcano has been recorded, registering an increase in the daily rate of occurrence on 28 March, with 6,500 quakes, and more than 11,000 on 29 March. As a result, on 30 March 2023, the SCG changed the volcano’s activity level from Yellow (I) to Orange (II).
The change from yellow level (I) implies that the volcano is active and shows changes in its behavior. Furthermore, an orange level (II) means that, given the changes in the volcano's activity, there is a probability that in days or weeks the Nevado del Ruiz volcano will erupt, and it’s expected to be more than it has done in the last decade. In the worst-case scenario, the alert level could change from orange to red (III), indicating that the volcano is in the process of erupting or is going to erupt any time, representing the highest level of alert. This emergency endangers more than 57,000 people in the surrounding areas.
Yellow level:
- Changes in the behavior of volcanic activity.
- Effects: Increase in volcanic activity: phenomena such as mild earthquakes or felt by the population, ash emissions, lahars, morphological changes, noise, odors of volcanic gases may be recorded; which may alter the quality of life of populations in the area of volcanic influence.
Orange level: - Possible eruption in days or weeks with moderate or high degree of danger.
- Possible eruptive event(s) of explosive or effusive character, coupled with the phenomena of volcanic activity on yellow alert.
- Effects: Nasal irritation and discharge, throat irritation and burning, sometimes accompanied with dry cough or respiratory distress, eye or skin irritation, indirect effects such as increased likelihood of car accidents, contamination of water sources and risk of roof subsidence. Red level:
- Erupting volcano or eruptive process in progress whose climax can be caused within hours.
- It is characterized by multi-causality
- Associated with pyroclasts fall, lava flows, ballistic projectiles, torrential floods, landslides, lahars and forest fires. - Effects: Injuries; loss of life; loss of farm animals, wildlife and livelihoods; loss of housing and community infrastructure; isolation of communities; loss of crops, harvests and livelihood elements for food security and income generation; water shortages; affectation of sanitation and hygiene systems; increase and proliferation of vectors; high risk due to chemical elements, as well as risks of accidents or incidents due to contamination by weapons (anti-personnel mines - APMs, unexploded ordnance - UXO - and booby traps - ET); damage to infrastructure; disappearance of persons; psychological impact on the inhabitants of the region;
This volcano has been erupting for approximately 10 years, but all eruptive events that have occurred in this period have been minor and, in most cases, their impact has been limited to the areas around the volcano, depending on the wind direction.
However, if the activity level changes to red and the volcano erupts, the magma would reach the surface and the eruptions would cause the fracturing of rock and the expulsion of pyroclastic material that is estimated to reach a radius of 15 km, along with gases and fluids at high speeds and temperature. Therefore, the municipalities in the area of influence could be affected by falling ash or denser material, highlighting that, according to the experience of Armero, the greatest threat would be the lahars or mud flows, which would flow into the Magdalena and Chinchiná rivers, and therefore, the surrounding populations along its course. In turn, the ashes could affect crops, flora and fauna, affect air traffic by reducing visibility for pilots, reduce air quality, and above all, generate health risks for people, such as respiratory, ocular and skin risks.
In the event of an eruption, an energy wave of great magnitude would be released, which the SGC would evaluate as the eruption signal, thus initiating the response protocol. In such a case, the volcanic eruption must be reported within two minutes of the confirmation of the energy release to the firefighters, Civil Defense, and Red Cross in the departments of Caldas and Tolima, and to the coordinators of the departmental Risk Management Units of Risaralda, Caldas and Tolima.