ABOUT THIS REPORT
Aim: this report provides an overview of key humanitarian crises resulting from armed conflict within 3 of the 32 departments in Colombia. The aim is to identify departments where the humanitarian consequences of conflict could increase in the face of uneven progress in the Colombian Government’s negotiations with various armed groups. It aims to inform humanitarian decision-making and programming by anticipating humanitarian needs in the departments of Antioquia, Caquetá, and Chocó.
Methodology: this report is based on the secondary data review of public sources. For each department selected, the ACAPS team collected existing information, mapped out relevant drivers of the crises, highlighted recent developments, and anticipated their probable evolution and potential impact on humanitarian needs over the next months.
The three departments were identified based on two criteria.
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The total number of people affected by armed conflict events between January–June 2023: the ACAPS team used OCHA’s Humanitarian Situation Monitor for this criterion to identify departments with the highest number of conflict-affected people.
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The presence of various armed groups within departments: as explained in detail, when one of the armed groups present in the department is not engaged in negotiations with the State, the probability of increased violence increases. This happens because the ceasefire between the Government and other armed groups leaves room for the group to attempt to gain greater territorial control. For this criterion, the ACAPS team relied on triangulated information from an alert system of the Colombian Ombudsman’s Office (Delegada para Prevención de riesgos y Sistema de Alertas Tempranas) and analyses by La Liga Contra el Silencio (El mapa de las guerras que desangran a Colombia) and Verdad Abierta (Las otras guerras del Eln no tienen cese al fuego).
Scope: this report aims to highlight current and anticipated crises whose humanitarian impacts are already visible and will likely be of highest importance during the second half of 2023. It does not aim to provide an exhaustive list of all current and anticipated crises derived from armed conflict affecting Colombia. The crises were selected based on a review of publicly available information, the close monitoring of the situation, and contextual knowledge. The crises in the report are listed alphabetically and not by order of importance or probability.
Limitations: the context of violence in Colombia is constantly changing – even more so when the Government is in the process of negotiating with multiple armed groups simultaneously. A sudden change in any variables considered could produce outcomes very different from those presented here. This report aims to understand future possibilities for the deterioration of armed conflict if current conditions do not change significantly. New conditions would alter assumptions and potentially imply a different analysis. At the same time, because of the high levels of violence against civilians in the Colombian armed conflict, they tend to withhold or hide a significant amount of information to avoid reprisals from armed groups. The limited information publicly available restricts the analysis, and there may be more localised dynamics not taken into consideration in the report.