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ABOUT THIS REPORT
Key findings
• After the collapse of the non-aggression pact between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Second Marquetalia (SM) in Vichada in August 2025, a territorial dispute erupted between the groups, increasing protection risks, including displacement and mobility restrictions. The impact has been most severe for riverine and border communities along the Venezuelan border.
• The 2026 elections pose high risks of armed coercion. Cumaribo remains at ‘extreme risk’ of fragmented violence between multiple non-state armed groups (NSAGs), creating territorial uncertainty. As in previous electoral periods, this classification highlights a volatile environment that facilitates systematic political co-optation.
• Shifting political dynamics in Venezuela are triggering spillover effects, including border closures and increased migration. This instability facilitates NSAG expansion into strategic corridors, escalating protection risks such as forced recruitment and the use of improvised explosive devices.
• Anticipated precipitation and temperatures anomalies between April–August 2026 are likely to trigger flooding (especially in June), wildfires (mostly during April–May), and localised dry conditions, affecting the health, livelihoods, and access to services of communities still recovering from the 2025 floods.
• The convergence of these factors signals an increase in the severity of humanitarian needs, with indigenous communities, children, and migrant and refugee populations facing the highest risks. The scale of the crisis is expected to surpass local response capacity, primarily affecting those targeted by systematic extortion in dispersed rural areas.