Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Favourable production prospects for 2025 wheat crop
- Record cereal production estimated in 2024
- Cereal imports forecast well below average in 2024/25
- Domestic prices of wheat and rice below year-on-year levels last February
Favourable production prospects for 2025 wheat crop
Planting of the 2025 main winter wheat crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the annual output, finalized last October and its harvest will take place from May onwards. The area planted is estimated above the five-year average, mostly supported by government incentives, including a minimum support price for the wheat crop and subsidies to purchase agricultural inputs. Field assessments from end-February 2025 indicated favourable growing conditions for the wheat crop, which has recently broken dormancy in northern parts of the country, while it is already at tillering to jointing stages of development in eastern and central parts. Planting of the 2025 minor spring wheat crop is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions and its harvest is expected to start in July.
China’s new food security law came into effect in June 2024 and aims to ensure the supply of grain and related products by protecting farmland, limiting land conversion and supporting farmers’ incomes. This law also highlights the need to reduce food waste and enhance grain production capabilities to address the country’s growing grain demand.
Record cereal production estimated in 2024
The 2024 cropping season finalized last November and the aggregate cereal output is estimated at a record level of 652 million tonnes. Maize crop production is estimated at a record level of 295 million tonnes, mainly due to large sowings driven by strong demand by the feed industry. Yields are estimated to be above the average level due to the widespread use of high-yielding seed varieties and favourable weather conditions in North China Plain, where about 80 percent of the maize crop is grown. Some localized crop losses occurred in southern areas due to flooding. The 2024 paddy crop production is estimated at 207.5 million tonnes slightly up from the 2023 level. Some localized crop losses occurred in southern main paddy producing areas due to flooding caused by heavy rains between July and September 2024, and the passage of Typhoon Yagi in late September. Wheat crop production is estimated to be at an above-average level of 140.1 million tonnes in 2024 as an above-average winter season output fully offset the losses of the spring season crops caused by excessive rainfall during the harvest.
Cereal imports forecast well below average in 2024/25
Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year are forecast at a well below-average level of 37.5 million tonnes reflecting ample carryover stocks following large imports in 2023/24 and the record cereal production harvested in 2024. Imports of maize are forecast at 10 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September), about half the average level. Imports of wheat are forecast at 7 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), about 30 percent below the average. Imports of sorghum are forecast at an average level of 7.2 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September). Imports of barley in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are expected to exceed the average, reaching 11 million tonnes, as low international prices will encourage purchases from abroad.
Domestic prices of wheat and rice lower year-on-year last February
Wholesale prices of wheat grain showed a steady declining trend throughout 2024 due to ample market availability from the above-average harvest attained in 2024 and the large volume of imports in the 2023/24 marketing year. In January and February 2025, prices were generally stable at levels of about 15 percent lower year-on-year.
Wholesale prices of Indica and Japonica rice have been declining since mid-2024 and, as of February 2025, they were slightly below their year-earlier level, reflecting an adequate market availability.