This climate risk profile is intended to serve as a public good to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions. Chile is located in western South America, with a total land area of 2,006,096 square kilometers (km2) and is neighbored by Peru to the north, Bolivia to the northeast, Argentina to the east and south, and the Pacific Ocean, with coasts that extend over 8,000 km. Chile is a high-income country and has been one of Latin America’s fastest growing economies over recent decades. Due to a combination of political, geographic, and social factors, Chile is recognized as vulnerable to climate change impacts, and overall, is ranked 29th out of 181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index.
In Chile, average annual temperatures are expected to increase by 1.4°C–1.7°C by mid-century and by as much as 3°C–3.5°C by the end of the century. Northern areas of the country that currently experience tropical climates are expected to see a greater increase in temperature compared to the southern regions. Regional climate models project that temperature increases will be highest in the central regions. Across all emission scenarios, temperatures will continue to increase for Chile throughout the end of the century. While precipitation in Chile is highly variable, it is projected to decrease consistently by 1.5 mm to 9.3 mm per month by the 2050s, to 5.5 mm to 11 mm by the 2090s. Together with growing temperatures and expected increased intensity in winds, there could be an increase in evapotranspiration pressures, which would impact surface water reservoirs.