SISMod for Chad - Lingering Economic Crisis and the Risk of Drought: Impact Simulation, October 2017

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The lingering economic downturn in Chad is stifling market growth for the main livelihoods, which are still agriculture and pastoralism for more than 83 percent of the population.

We developed a shock impact simulation model (SISMod) to estimate the effects on the household economy and food security of three different scenarios: a continuation of the economic crisis, a drought, and the combination of the two. Results were explored according to population profiles and livelihoods as well as by geographical disaggregation. The model yielded the results summarized below.

Low domestic consumption, a lack of foreign currency and insecurity have a negative impact on trade in Chad, particularly across borders, affecting both traders and pastoralists.

The reduction of the terms-of-trade for pastoralists and the depletion of assets to cope with food insecurity leads to further decreases of well-being, in particular for those whose food consumption is not sustained by own production.

Even without the shock of price increases, a comparison of prices and wages shows that household spending capacity is falling. Deteriorating market access renders all households highly vulnerable to additional shocks.

If a drought were to hit before household resilience recovered from the ongoing economic crisis, the number of people in need would increase to 7.9 million and, if markets were not able to provide enough food, the country would need almost ten times the current level of in-kind aid.

Furthermore, the effects of a drought would hit a part of the population that is far from the areas in which WFP is operating. This indicates the need for additional preparation, as WFP and its cooperating partners must be ready to expand their operations quickly if needed.