Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Cereal production in 2024 estimated at slightly below-average level
- Food inflation at elevated level in December 2024
- Critical levels of acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024
Cereal production in 2024 estimated at slightly below-average level
Harvesting of the 2024 coarse grain crops concluded last November, while harvesting operations of the 2024 rice crop were completed in December. Seasonal rainfall was characterized by average to above-average cumulative amounts, but they were erratically distributed. The start of the rainy season, which normally occurs in May, was delayed by up to one month. Furthermore, in the provinces of Logone Oriental, Logone Occidental, Mayo-Kebbi Est and Mayo-Kebbi Ouest, dry spells in May affected planting operations and crop establishment. Subsequently, heavy rains between June and September triggered widespread flooding, affecting in particular Salamat, Lac, Batha, Sila, Mayo-Kebbi Est, Tandjilé, Mandoul and Moyen-Chari provinces, where agricultural activities were severely disrupted. Nationwide, floods destroyed about 432 000 hectares of cropland.
Civil insecurity continued to undermine farmers’ productive capacity in several areas in 2024, particularly in Lac Province, causing localized production shortfalls. Across the country, farmers’ limited access to agricultural inputs due to high prices had a negative impact on yields.
The 2024 aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 2.7 million tonnes, near the 2023 level, and about 4 percent below the average of the previous five years.
Food inflation at elevated level in December 2024
The annual food inflation rate increased steadily from January to July 2024, when it reached 16.6 percent, before declining to 8.5 percent in December 2024, up from 0.7 percent a year earlier. The elevated food prices were supported by high transport costs and low domestic supply due to cereal production shortfalls in 2024 and reduced imports. In addition, market disruptions due to conflict and floods, coupled with strong local demand, especially in refugee-hosting areas, added upward pressure on food prices.
Critical levels of acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024
According to the November 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 2.42 million people (14 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October and December 2024, including nearly 186 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is well above the 2.06 million people (12 percent of the analyzed population) estimated to be in CH Phase 3 (Crisis) and above during the same period in 2023. However, the actual number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the last quarter of 2024 is likely to be even higher when considering an additional CH analysis, also carried out in November 2024, which estimated that 457 000 refugees, returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) (30 percent of the analyzed population) were acutely food insecure during that period, including 112 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency).
Since the eruption of the conflict in the Sudan in mid-April 2023, nearly 770 000 Sudanese refugees and about 216 000 Chadian returnees have crossed the border to seek refuge in the country, mostly in Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, Sila and Ennedi Est regions. Food insecurity in host communities has worsened due to the sustained pressure on food stocks and livelihoods, while humanitarian assistance has been limited by funding shortages.
Conflict remains a key driver of acute food insecurity in several regions. Violent events by non-state armed groups persist in Lac Province, where about 221 000 people are internally displaced, and in areas bordering Libya, affecting cross-border trade and causing a decline in the food supply in local markets. Furthermore, in some southern parts of the country, conflicts between farmers and herders continued to disrupt agricultural activities and markets in 2024.
The severe flooding in 2024 affected about 1.9 million people, causing significant livelihood losses, infrastructure damage and displacement, which exacerbated the already critical levels of acute food insecurity.
According to early projections of the November 2024 CH analyses, about 4.29 million people are expected to be acutely food insecure during the 2025 June to August lean season, including over 590 000 refugees, returnees and IDPs, with nearly 600 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). Updated projections for this period, along with estimates for the March to May 2025 period, are expected to be released in April 2025.