Attachments
Key Messages
- Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist between December and May 2026 in Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est provinces, where Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees are being hosted. However, the continuous influx of refugees and their relocations to the westernmost localities Wadi Hawar, Kobé, Megri, Biltine, Ouara, Abdi, and Djourf Al Ahamar departments risk driving worsened food insecurity and increasing the already high food assistance needs. The influx of 15,912 new refugees between October 24 and December 19 is increasing the pressure on the host communities’ livelihoods.
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through May 2026 in the Fouli and Kaya departments, most affected by conflict and population displacement. Lac Province remains affected by terrorist group attacks and flooding, resulting in population displacement and the destruction of livelihoods. Mamdi and Wayi departments, which are less affected, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between December 2025 and January 2026 before evolving to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between February and May 2026.
- In the provinces impacted by the delayed onset of the season and by the dry spells in the center of the Sahelian zone and in the Sudanian zone, particularly North Kanem, North Barh el-Gazel, Moyen Chari, Salamat, and Tandjilé, poor and very poor households will be able to maintain only adequate food consumption. Their income will be insufficient to cover non-food expenditures, and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between February and May 2026.
- Millet and sorghum prices continue to decrease due to surplus supply, largely exceeding demand. Traders are taking advantage of this situation to replenish their stocks. To meet non-food expenses, poor households are selling larger quantities of cereals to obtain sufficient income. However, the price of maize remains high, and harvests have not yet started.
This report provides an update on October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 19, 2025.