Good cereal availability due to ongoing harvests
The size of the harvests from this year’s agricultural season varies considerably from one region of the country to another. Harvests in southern and eastern areas are expected to be average to above-average. Meanwhile, below-average production levels are expected for the Wadi-Fira region, parts of northern Ouara, Kanem, Hadjer Lamis, northern Batha, and Bahr-El-Ghazel.
Compared with September 2013, markets are currently well-stocked with coarse grains that are beginning to arrive on local markets from the new harvests. In general, prices have been declining since September, improving food access for poor households.
As of October, food security for households dependent on rainfed cereal production is improving due to the ongoing harvests. The combination of replenished cereal stocks and localized supplies of market garden crops will allow households to diversify their food sources between October and December. During this time period, all areas of the country will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.
However, cereal stocks in Wadi-Fira, parts of northern Ouara, Kanem, Hadjer Lamis, northern Batha, and Bahr El-Ghazel will begin to deplete in January, one to two months earlier than usual. Between January and March, households in these areas will be more dependent on market purchases than usual and will also face atypically high food prices at local markets. As a result, household food consumption in these areas will be reduced and minimally adequate, translating into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security outcomes.