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Chad - Food Security Outlook: The continued influx of Sudanese refugees maintains Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes in eastern Chad, October 2024 - May 2025

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Key Messages

  • FEWS NET estimates that 1.5 to 2 million people will need food aid between February and May 2025, particularly Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees in the eastern provinces of the country, as well as internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Lac Province. Food aid will continue to be available for refugees, but insufficient to cover the food consumption deficits of beneficiaries due to the increasing number of people in need with the ongoing refugee influx.
  • The areas of concern are Ouaddaï, Sila, Wadi Fira, and Ennedi Est provinces, where Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees are hosted. Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in these provinces between October and May 2025, with pockets of households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The ongoing influx of refugees fleeing the conflict in Sudan, amounting to over 681,444 refugees in October, is putting pressure on livelihoods and increasing the labor supply and competition in a context of scarce agricultural and non-agricultural job opportunities. The food consumption of refugees relies on markets and, most importantly, food assistance, despite insufficient volume and irregular distribution. Furthermore, floods have made it difficult to access certain localities and refugee camps, further impacting the distribution of food aid.
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also expected in Lac Province, which is affected by attacks from terrorist groups and floods and is one of the areas of concern. Insecurity, exacerbated by floods, leads to population displacement and disrupts livelihoods and market supply.
  • Since July, floods have affected the entire country, destroying 432,000 hectares of crops and killing 70,000 livestock,as well as causing loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure. Indeed, the destruction of crop fields, combined with the reduced area planted due to insecurity in the Lac region, will lead to a 5 percent decrease in cereal production compared to the 2023/24 season and a 9 percent decrease compared to the five-year average. Additionally, the floods have also disrupted the supply to most markets.

The analysis presented here is based on the information available as of October 16, 2024.