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LRA Crisis Tracker Quarterly Security Brief [July - Sept. 2011]

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This LRA Crisis Tracker Quarterly Security Brief provides a summary and analysis of the reported activities of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) from July to September 2011 (highlighted reporting period) in Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), South Sudan, and Central African Republic (CAR).

Multiple reports are emerging that key members of the LRA command structure gathered in southeast CAR between June and September of 2011. This meeting included several commanders previously operating in Congo, who were reportedly summoned to CAR by six Acholi officers sent to Congo by LRA leader Joseph Kony. However, by late September multiple LRA groups were reportedly again heading south towards the Congo-CAR border.

LRA movement into CAR could be linked to a drastic reduction in reported LRA attacks in northern Congo between June and September 2011. The highlighted reporting period saw a significant decrease of reported LRA attacks, with 20 LRA attacks reportedly occurring in July, 12 in August, and 11 in September. This is a steep decline from the surge of 50 attacks in the month of June, which resulted in 32 civilians killed and 53 abducted.

Intensity of violence, measured by the number of killings and abductions per reported attack, was at its lowest level of the last seven quarters on record. On average, 0.23 civilians were killed and 1.65 abducted per reported attack.

Against the previous quarter‘s 87 reported LRA attacks, the highlighted reporting period saw a reduction of the number of reported LRA attacks by 51%, at 43 total reported attacks.