Food security is expected to deteriorate during the lean season (April-September) as prices continue to rise, market supplies are reduced, and fuel shortages continue. Supply chain disruptions and suspended exports of some cereal products and oil from Cameroon are contributing to price hikes for basic goods, making the more unaffordable. Between March and May, significant price increases were registered for meat (33% increase), corn (13%), peanuts (20%), sugar (11%), gasoline (7%) and rice (10%). Poor households and IDPs facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity could fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the lean season as food stocks deplete; meanwhile, price increases of 30-70% are expected by August for some of the most commonly consumed foods. Fuel shortages are limiting humanitarian access as humanitarian flights are reduced. Many parts of CAR also remain inaccessible by road due to the presence of explosive devices.
Drought impacts are accelerating and humanitarian needs are rising across response sectors. At least 7 million people are now affected by drought, up from 6.1 million in May. 213,000 people are facing Catastrophe (IPC-5) food security outcomes between June-September, up from 81,000 projected in April. Over 800,000 people are now displaced as a result of drought. Water levels on the Juba and Shabelle rivers are 30% below average, resulting in lack of water for irrigation. Pastoralists and their livestock are increasingly on the move in search of resources, raising the risk of social tensions. Lack of food, water, and access to nutritional and medical care have resulted in malnourished and sick children presenting at health facilities too late for recovery. A 40% increase in the January-April admissions of children under five for acute malnutrition treatment in south and central Somalia is reported, compared to January-April 2021. Humanitarian responders report critical shortages in availability of aid, including in IDP camps.
Already-high humanitarian access constraints in Luhansk oblast are likely to increase following the Ukrainian troop withdrawal from Lysychansk – the last city in the oblast under Ukrainian control – on 2 July. Access constraints are also expected to increase in Donetsk oblast as conflict intensifies. Unmet needs in both oblasts remain high due to constrained access and critical infrastructure damage that prevents civilians from accessing basic services such as clean water, electricity, and gas. Overcrowding and lack of proper WASH infrastructure in bomb shelters continues to pose health risks. Similar access concerns and humanitarian needs exist in Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts, and the southern border of Mykolaiv oblast due to active ground conflict and non-government-controlled areas. Missile strikes and shelling by Russian forces in in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Odesa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure.