Attachments
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Central African Republic (CAR) was thought to be on the path to stability in 2019, but further fighting erupted in late 2020 due to contested elections. This has continued a cycle of violence and unrest, leading to a deteriorating humanitarian situation. The aim of this diagnostic is to evaluate the current situation using a risk assessment methodology. Key trends and major risks, associated with nine thematic clusters, are used to highlight three potential scenarios in the short to medium term. Despite attempts to quell armed groups, ongoing violence and ethnic tensions remain major obstacles to achieving stability.
BACKGROUND & HISTORY
The CAR gained independence from France in 1960 but was soon beset by coups and political upheavals. The first president, David Dacko, was overthrown in 1966 by Jean-Bédel Bokassa, who declared himself Emperor of the Central African Empire. Bokassa's regime was characterized by widespread human rights abuses and corruption, and he was eventually overthrown in 1979 by French and CAR military forces. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, a series of coups rocked the CAR. A peace agreement was signed in 2007, leading to the formation of a unity government, but the country remained unstable and violence persisted. In 2013, a new rebel group, the Séléka coalition, seized power and installed its leader, Michel Djotodia, as the country's first Muslim president. The Séléka regime was characterized by widespread human rights abuses, leading to the formation of anti-balaka Christian self-defence groups. The resulting conflict led to a humanitarian crisis and displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. Since then, the country has struggled to establish a stable government and restore security, despite numerous peace agreements and international interventions. In 2020 and 2021, the country was further destabilized by President Touadera’s contested elections, leading to a resurgence of violence and unrest. The CAR remains one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world, and continues to face significant political, security, and humanitarian challenges.