SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
Despite the expected good grain harvest with production estimated at approximately 1,963,349 MT, certain structurally deficit areas such as Kanem, Eastern Logone and Moyen Chari will continue to experience food insecurity problems. Other areas such as Ouaddaï and Western Logone have only recently overcome their food insecurity problems and are still showing small deficits compared with the annual consumption needs of their local population.
A look at the food situation shows grain production up 61.8% from last year. This record production figure is way above the figure for 2003 (1,424,400 MT) and should strengthen food availability on domestic markets and reduce pressure on the grain markets tracked by FEWS NET.
There is plentiful vegetation and watering points are full and the future outlook is not bad, which means that migratory animal herds may begin their trek south a little later than usual.
The food situation of the local population of most agropastoral areas is steadily improving. A look at the food situation of the Sudanese refugee population shows them receiving full food rations in November in virtually all camps. However, the situation of recent refugees from the Central African Republic is still precarious.
Conditions in villages surrounding the refugee camps which have only just made it through a difficult lean period are beginning to improve with the good outlook for the grain harvest already in progress in certain localized areas. All this is confirmed by trends in grain prices which have been moving downwards since September.
SEASONAL CALENDAR
CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY
Several different factors, including but not limited to too much rainfall, purple witchweed, grasshoppers, grain-eating birds, wild animals, caterpillars and snails have partially or totally destroyed crops, with localized reports of reduced yields.
Irrigated farming areas in Bongor subsector were affected by flooding. “Berbèré” or flood-irrigated sorghum crops are also threatened by floodwaters in low-lying areas in this same subsector.
The presence of grain-eating birds in fields of grain crops in AmDam and Mongo is a threat to off-season crops. There were reports of crops in AmDam and Moissala being destroyed by elephants. Snails destroyed 500 hectares of sorghum crops in Eastern Tandjile Department.
The food situation in flood-stricken areas and areas affected by grain-eating birds will need to be closely monitored by all food security stakeholders.
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE GROWING SEASON IN CHAD
A review of the 2005/06 growing season shows the first rains coming relatively early, few dry spells, a good spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall, abundant rainfall adequately soaking lowland areas and causing localized flooding and damage, and an extended rainy season ensuring a long enough useful season to enable rainfed and flood-recession crops to grow to maturity. This season's record harvest is a result of good rainfall conditions and an increase in the size of the area planted in all types of grain crops.
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