Attachments
Key Messages
- The persistence of conflict severely limits household access to livelihoods and constitutes a major driver of food insecurity in the Central African Republic (CAR), disproportionately affecting internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. In January, security incidents continued, particularly in Haut-Mbomou following the December elections, where clashes between armed groups and government forces led to new displacements, both within the prefecture and toward neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). These movements disrupt access to agricultural land, markets, and income-earning opportunities, while weakening household coping mechanisms. In addition, as of December 31, 2025, CAR hosts nearly 64,000 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly from Sudan, the DRC, and Chad, concentrated in Vakaga, Mbomou, and Haut-Mbomou. In these areas, limited humanitarian access and reliance on assistance increase pressure on host communities and exacerbate levels of acute food insecurity.
- Despite the seasonal improvement in food availability following the harvests, access remains highly uneven across regions. In areas under the control of armed groups, market access remains limited, leading to high prices and consumption gaps among poor households. In areas less affected by insecurity, the majority of poor households are meeting their food needs through their own harvests and income from dry-season activities such as hunting, gathering, labor migration, or fishing. From February onward, stock depletion and seasonal price increases are expected to worsen food access, sustaining high humanitarian needs.
- The rainy season is expected to begin in the south in March, supporting planting and crop development. Overall, average to above-average rainfall conditions are expected to support a partial recovery of agricultural production and labor opportunities, particularly in accessible areas. However, in insecurity-affected zones, poor households’ ability to fully resume agricultural activities will remain limited due to constraints on access to land and inputs, as well as displacement.
- Markets in CAR remain generally well supplied with local food products during the post-harvest period, having recorded seasonal price declines — even for several local commodities — through the end of 2025. However, some early price increases have been observed for cereals, which for the most part remain above last year’s levels and/or the five-year average due to limited harvests in the last agricultural season and ongoing insecurity. In addition, prices of imported food commodities remain above average, particularly in major urban centers such as Bangui. These increases are mainly linked to persistent disruptions in cross-border trade flows with Cameroon, including transport delays and rising logistics costs. Poor urban households, which are highly dependent on markets, are unable to benefit from the typical seasonal improvements in food access due to the high prices, and therefore continue to face elevated levels of acute food insecurity.
- In 2026, CAR is expected to continue facing persistent acute food insecurity, with high levels of needs, particularly during the lean season. Moreover, chronic underfunding of the humanitarian response continues to restrict the coverage and continuity of assistance. In 2025, only 37 percent of needs were funded, leading to the closure of more than 100 operational bases and the suspension of essential programs, notably in nutrition and protection. The 2026 Humanitarian Needs Response Plan (HNRP) reflects the lowest budget allocation in seven years. In the absence of rapid and sufficient resource mobilization, the combination of security shocks and economic constraints is expected to worsen acute malnutrition and increase the number of households requiring emergency assistance, thereby increasing the risk of a significant deterioration in food security.