Between May and August 2020, corresponding to the lean season, it is estimated that despite planned food assistance, 29 sub-prefectures or 0.75 million people, representing 16% of the population, are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while 35 sub-prefectures or 1.6 million people, representing 35% of the population, are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). A total of 2.36 million people (representing 51% of the population analysed, 4.59 million) are in a situation of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+). In addition, 1.61 million people, representing 35% of the population analysed, are in Stress (IPC Phase 2) with some of them at risk of being in a more severe situation of food insecurity, should the current situation persist.
Compared with the previous analysis, there has been a significant deterioration in the situation in Bangui, with the population in need of assistance increasing by 25% to 50%, in Sibut (Kemo) and Abba (Nana-Mamberé) by 15%, and in general by 5% in most sub-prefectures, with the exception of areas where planned food assistance was not taken into account in the previous analysis. In these particular areas, planned food assistance may play a role in mitigating the severity of food insecurity.
Renewed conflict between armed groups and the resurgence of inter-community conflicts in some sub-prefectures, and the displacement of populations that this generates, the disruptive effects of markets in terms of food prices, difficulties in supplying markets caused by COVID-19 prevention measures, and a below-average agricultural season, are the main causes of the deterioration of the situation. Regarding the agricultural season, rainfall is generally average, but the vegetation index is slightly in deficit due to low rainfall recorded between January and February 2020. Also noteworthy are the seasonal attacks of pests such as armyworms and locusts, which remain inadequately treated due to the persistence of the conflict that limits access to fields and the lack of funding to mitigate damage.