Cayman Islands + 3 more

Hurricane Dennis Advisory Number 16

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HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005

...DENNIS NOW A STRONGER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF AND FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM... WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WHILE SOME WOBBLING HAS OCCURRED...AS IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DENNIS MOVES OVER CUBA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT EMERGES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH LOCAL 15 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA MAESTRA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CUBA EAST OF CABO CRUZ. A MUCH LARGER STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA WEST OF CABO CRUZ. A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.4 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART