Despite harvests, Crisis outcomes expected in some conflict-affected divisions
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist until September in conflict-affected areas of the Far North region, particularly in the Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Tsanaga, and Mayo-Sava divisions. Additionally, an above-average risk of flooding is forecast in these areas between July and September, which could likely result in above-average crop losses and temporary displacements. By October, area-level outcomes will likely improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with improved food access from own production beginning in September. However, many households are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to below-average harvests following the impacts of conflict and flooding.
- The main harvest will temporarily improve food access for some areas in the conflict-affected Northwest and Southwest regions from July to September. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to re-emerge from October 2024 to January 2025. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected throughout the scenario period in more remote and insecure divisions of Lebialem, Momo, and Menchum, where production is anticipated to be significantly lower than during pre-conflict years. Many households in these divisions will likely continue to experience food consumption gaps or resort to negative coping strategies, such as buying food on credit or selling remaining assets, through September.
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January 2025 in divisions hosting large refugee populations, notably Mbéré in Adamawa and Kadey and Lom-et-Djerem in the East region. Even though food availability and access for refugees and host community households will likely improve as harvesting begins in July, households are expected to continue resorting to negative coping strategies, given the context of high food prices and competition for job opportunities.
- FEWS NET estimates that humanitarian assistance needs are currently at their annual peak in June, with approximately 1.5-2.0 million people in need, mainly refugees, IDPs, and returnees. However, as in the last several years, total needs remain significantly higher than planned assistance levels, and a further scaling-down of assistance is likely due to severe funding shortages.