Key messages for this weekly report are presented below.
Rainfall monitoring and forecast
In the period of 18 - 24 June 2024, there has been light to heavy rainfall has been observed over the LMB. Especially, during 23 – 24 June, heavy and very heavy rainfall has been observed over the LMB in Luang Prabang, Paksane, Muang Kao, Nakhon Phanom, and Khong Chiam.
During 25 June – 01 July 2024, the accumulated rainfall over the entire Lower Mekong Basin is distributed with light to heavy rain. However, from 26 - 27 June, moderate rainfall is expected to occur over the Lower Mekong Basin, and heavy rain may potentially occur in the central part of Laos, the upper part of the 3S Basin, and the southwestern and central part of Cambodia on 26 June.
Water level monitoring and forecast
At 22 key monitoring stations along the Mekong mainstream from 18 – 24 June 2024, water levels are normal, and the flow threshold (PMFM 6C) are under normal conditions. It is also the same condition for Tan Chau and Chau Doc monitoring stations, which are significantly influenced by sea tidal fluctuation.
In the period of 25 – 29 June 2024, Water levels are forecasted to be slightly decreasing and stable at upper stretches of LMB including Chiang Saen, and Luang Prabang. However, water level at other remaining stations from Chiang Khan to Pakse will either rise or be stable, while other downstream stations will slightly rise. At Tan Chau and Chau Doc stations, the water levels are predicted to be also fluctuated, resulting from the influence of sea tidal patterns. Water levels at most of the stations are expected to be below their long-term averages (LTAs) except for Luang Prabang station.
Drought condition and forecast
During 18-24 June 2024, the LMB was at moderate drought in some areas of the middle and lower parts. Drought specifically covered some areas of Battambang, Pursat, Khammuan, Savannakhet, Surin, Buri Ram, Nakhon Ratchasima, Gia Lai, Dak Nong, and Dak Lak. Severe drought was found in Savannakhet.
The next three-month forecast of rainfall indicates that north-eastern Cambodia, middle and southern Laos and eastern Thailand are likely receiving below average rainfall in June and July, while Cambodia is forecasted to be the wettest area which is likely receiving above average rainfall in June and July. The forecast also indicates that the LMB might receive less than average rain specifically in the middle and southeastern regions and southern Laos is likely the driest area in the region.
