ReliefWeb

Cambodia and the wider Southeast Asia region have seen a delay in the onset of rains and below average rainfall for the time of year. Regional forecasts for the season (July-September and October-December), have indicated July to September rainfall to be initially drier than average conditions with indications of a moderately favourable improvement that should hopefully alleviate the impact of the drier than average first part of season. Forecasts for the region for the later part of the year (October to December) also indicate likely drier than average conditions as a result of the El Niño effect active since March 2015, which is expected to last through 2015 and extend into early 2016.

Analysis of the current dry spell in Cambodia shows an improvement in rainfall since mid-July, but with localised areas of ongoing concern around the centre of the country and the North West. However, it remains too early in the season to determine if a serious drought will develop, and the impact on crops and livelihoods (El Niño in Asia, 29 July 2015). If rains remain poor, there is potential for a compressed agricultural season, crop losses and a resulting impact on livelihoods and food security.

A number of agencies continue to monitor of the situation closely, in terms of weather, water levels and the potential impact on the overall paddy. In-depth analysis of the situation at various points in time (in mid-June, mid-July, late July and early August), has been undertaken by WFP using findings from its 2014 Consolidated Livelihoods Exercise for Analysing Resilience (CLEAR) and overlaying these with drought anomaly index maps from the University of Tokyo. Maps (see below) show the situation at these different points in time, from mid-June to early August, and indicate that the situation in June was concerning with a large part of the country at risk of livelihood disruptions if rainfall shortages continued. As of mid-July, the situation has evidently improved. Rainfall shortages are now more localized, with fewer people at risk and lower risk levels more generally. These findings complement forecasts of wetter conditions for Southeast Asia between July and September. Droughts and/or floods in the 2014 monsoon affected 18 provinces in Cambodia, but only 1% of the paddy crop was destroyed as a result. Cambodia produces roughly twice the amount of rice needed to feed its population.

Reports of rainfall shortages throughout the country in the early stages of the current monsoon season, are being actively monitored by multiple HRF agencies from a variety of perspectives, looking at the potential impact on crops in the instance of a compressed agricultural season, on household water availability and any resulting health or nutrition consequences. The Humanitarian Response Forum (HRF), which supports the coordination of emergency preparedness and response efforts of INGOs and UN agencies in Cambodia, will continue to support monitoring efforts and information sharing as the season progresses.

Relevant maps could be downloaded here: Drought Intensity (as of 5 August 2015), Paddy Cultivation Areas at Risk of Drought (as of 5 August 2015), Estimated Rainfall Accumulation over Cambodia from 1-6 August 2015.