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Environmental factors influencing prices
Global food prices showed an upward trend in the first ten months of 2024, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on global trade and agriculture – particularly in the first half of the year – and the imposition of food export restrictions by major producing countries.
In October 2024, the FAO global food price index continued to rise by 2.0% compared to September 2024 (MoM) and 5.5% compared to October 2023 (YoY), driven by price increases for most commodities in the index, with vegetable oil seeing the largest price hike. However, the FAO all rice price index shown a 5.6% decrease MoM and 9.5% decline YoY, largely driven by India's decision to lift its white rice export restrictions in late September 2024.
In October 2024, the global rice production, projected by USDA, remained high, driven by increased harvesting areas worldwide and favorable weather conditions in major producing countries.
While some regions of the world may benefit from the emergence of La Niña between late 2024 and mid-2025 – boosting agricultural output and improving transportation – others may face significant risks to food security, energy production, and overall economic stability.
To better understand how global shocks impact food availability and accessibility, and market functionality in Cambodia, the World Food Programme (WFP) tracks primary food prices and market dynamics across 58 markets nationwide. Since January 2024, interviews are conducted remotely by a call centre, with more than 750 food and non-food traders, as well as market chiefs, during the third week of each month to assess supply and demand (See Methods). Additionally, monitoring extends to gasoline and diesel.
Key Findings
In October 2024, the estimated average cost of the WFP basic food basket (BFB) was 115,700 riels (equivalent to USD 28.2) per person per month, marking a 5.1% increase from September 2024 (MoM). This rise was mainly driven by price increases in mixed rice, morning glory, duck egg and vegetable oil, which outweighed price declines for other items in the basket. Urban markets experienced a larger increase (+7.3% MoM) compared to rural markets (+2.4% MoM). Yearover-year (YoY), the average cost of the BFB decreased slightly by 0.8%. Urban markets recorded a modest drop of 1.6%, while rural markets experienced a slight increase of 1.6%.
The surveyed markets continued to function well in October 2024, while the number of customer visits to markets remained relatively low. This low trend was possibly due to the rising popularity of alternative options like small food stores.
In October 2024, Cambodia experienced above-average rainfall, leading to flash floods in several provinces and deteriorating vegetation conditions. Despite these impacts, wet-season paddy cultivation exceeded the national target, achieving 110% of the planned goal. ENSO forecasts indicate that the La Niña event is likely to persist until March 2025, bringing slightly above-normal rainfall along with higher-than-average temperatures from November 2024 to January 2025.