By Peter Murphy
ABIDJAN, June 26 (Reuters) - Ivory Coast's civil war foes meet next Tuesday to try to revive a peace process paralysed by political squabbling and delays in disarmament that threaten to derail a presidential election scheduled for October.
The vote is meant to signal an end to a low-intensity but debilitating conflict in the West African nation. But so far little has been done to prepare for the ballot and fighters on both sides are jealously guarding their weapons.
Rebel and army chiefs agreed in May to start disarming from this Monday but the insurgents have since rowed back and the deadline looks set to pass with no action. Loyalist militias say recent ethnic violence means it is not safe for them to do so.
"If there isn't any progress on disarmament, I think it's going to be very serious," said Kojo Bedu-Addo, senior African analyst at the London-based Control Risks Group.
"No one thinks there is any real will to disarm," said one Western diplomat in the main city Abidjan.
The warring sides are to meet in South Africa on Tuesday to review the latest peace deal, signed in Pretoria in April.
The rebels originally attempted a coup in 2002 and seized the northern part of the world's top cocoa grower.
Peace deals have not put an end to frustrations.
Newspapers print almost daily rumours of attacks, and the cocoa-rich west is on edge after scores of people were massacred in ethnic violence.
In the rebel-held north, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating because of a lack of trained doctors, nurses and medicines, and maternal and infant mortality rates are all rising alongside poverty.
"The Pretoria initiative has a lot of work to do if it's to keep the security situation contained," said Bedu-Addo.
"EVERYONE IS SCARED"
Ivory Coast's people have seen too many peace deals come and go since war began to cherish hopes of a quick fix.
"Everyone is scared," said a mechanic, working in a muddy yard in Abidjan. "Before the election I think I'll send my family to (neighbouring) Ghana."
Some hope the 10,000 U.N. and French peacekeepers patrolling a demilitarised buffer zone between the two sides will be able to guarantee security in the run-up to the polls. But the head of the U.N. mission has said he needs more troops.
The vote is also threatened by delays in drawing up voter lists, a row over the formation of an electoral commission and the fact that identity papers for many northerners were destroyed during three years of war.
"Every day that goes by without movement on these key issues ... makes the deadline that much more difficult to achieve," said U.N. special envoy Alan Doss.
"Beyond the end of this month ... the October 30 date becomes extremely difficult to maintain."
There has been some progress: President Laurent Gbagbo has said northern opposition leader Alassane Ouattara can run for election despite a law that excluded him previously.
That was a key rebel demand -- but the insurgents also want new laws on issues such as nationality to end what they say has been discrimination against people from the mainly Muslim north. If they disarm, they fear they will lose their bargaining power.
The endless uncertainty weighs heavily on Ivorians.
"We can't make plans for the future," said Karim Diabate, standing behind the counter of a pharmacy in Abidjan. "There are not many customers now. People are scared of spending money."