Attachments
Highlights
• International cereal prices fell in March 2025, supported by good crop conditions in some major producing countries and ample supply from seasonal harvests vis-à-vis reduced demand. The benchmark United States of America (U.S. No. 2, Hard Red Winter) wheat and the United States of America (U.S. No.2, Yellow) maize declined by 3.3 and 6.2 percent respectively on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis. Similarly, the FAO All Rice price index also posted a decline of about 1.7 percent in March.
• While global crude oil prices declined for two consecutive months in February and March 2025, local fuel prices remained significantly elevated particularly in Burundi, South Sudan and Sudan. Brent crude on price stood at 71 USD/bll in March – down 3.4 percent on m-o-m basis and 16.1 percent lower than March 2024 level. In South Sudan and Sudan, average pump prices were at approximately 2.8 USD/l, 309 and 138 percent respectively higher than year earlier levels. Although the official fuel price at the pump has remained unchanged in Burundi since March 2024 (4,000 BIF, or approximately USD 1.40), fuel is scarce. This ongoing shortage has led to the emergence of a parallel market, where the price per litre exceeds the official rate by more than four times.
• Macroeconomic challenges persisted through to the first quarter of 2025, with some local currencies recording severe currency depreciation against the U.S. dollar. By March 2025, Ethiopia and South Sudan recorded the highest currency depreciation in official rates (56.2 percent and 24.7 percent respectively) primarily driven by low foreign reserves versus high demand. Conversely, the Kenyan and Ugandan shilling strengthened by 5.4 percent and 6.0 percents respectively, supported by foreign currency inflows and monetary policies.
• Regional inflation averaged 34.0 percent in March 2025 (excluding Somalia and South Sudan).
Sudan posted an annual inflation of 173.7 percent in March. While data was not available for South Sudan, inflation is estimated to be at triple digits given the high prices for both good and services.
• The per capita cost of food basket either eased or remained stable in most countries across the region. In Rwanda and Burundi, m-o-m decline of 4 percent was recorded in March, supported by significant decline in cereal prices. In Sudan and South Sudan, the cost of food basket remained relatively stable on m-o-m basis while remaining significantly higher than same time previous year (105.8 and 229.5 percent respectively). In Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia, the per capita cost of food basket was lower than March 2024 levels by 7-12 percent.
• As of March 2025, cereal prices in WFP-monitored markets showed mixed trends compared to the 5-year average, with prices mostly stable or lower in Djibouti and Uganda. However, Sudan and South Sudan saw exceptionally high prices—over 500 percent above the 5-year average, driven by prolonged conflict and macroeconomic challenges.