Eastern Africa: Humanitarian Bulletin | July - August 2015
Likely El Niño event could cause mix of drought and flooding
Conflict and political tension driving food and nutrition insecurity
UN, AU warn of risks in Burundi
Number of people fleeing Yemen to the Horn of Africa continues to rise
AU holds WHS consultation in region
Scale-up of Somali refugee repatriation from Kenya foreseen
Despite renewed peace efforts, humanitarian situation in South Sudan continues to worsen
Tana River clashes reignite in Kenya
Cash Learning Partnership (CaLP) calls for new members
Regional funding update
El Niño becoming a major concern for region
FEWS NET confirms the current El Niño climatic event is now well-established and continues to strengthen over the Horn of Africa. Peak values may exceed those reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Niño events, and there is an over-90-per-cent chance that El Niño will continue through October-December into early 2016. The influence of El Niño over the next 3-6 months is twofold:
Below-normal rains that will develop in to drought for the northern sector, mostly in Ethiopia, Sudan and Eritrea, which have already experienced poor cropping and drier-than-normal vegetation conditions.
Increased likelihood for above-normal rains for the equatorial sector between October-December 2015 in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. Severe and prolonged flooding may lead to outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever and other tropical water-borne diseases.
The regional Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) urges preparedness measures and early action to mitigate the impacts of both the drier-than-normal conditions and flooding in the affected areas. Urgent vaccination of livestock, water and sanitation interventions within flood-prone areas of the region is highly recommended.