Poor crop production is expected during the January–February 2026 harvest across the bimodal regions in Kenya and southern Somalia following extremely poor rainfall performance during the October–December 2025 season.
Pasture and surface water availability remain below-average following an extremely dry October–December rainfall season, despite a few storms in December that provided short-term relief. These poor conditions are exacerbated by hotter-than-normal temperatures.
Heavy rainfall since mid-February, with above-average rainfall forecast through mid-March, likely indicating an early onset of the March–May rainfall season across the western sector of the region including western and Central Kenya, much of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.
Ethiopia’s Belg/Gu/Genna season is off to a slow start with delayed onset already experienced across most parts of the eastern, central and southern regions. However, as the season nears the March–April peak, short-term forecasts indicate a likely improvement in the first two weeks of March.
The current March–May rainfall outlook is characterized by uncertainty given the high variability in key climate drivers, including a rapidly waning La Niña, forecast ENSO neutral conditions, earlier-than-average northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the shorter-term influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
