Above-average rainfall likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2020
• Above-average Season 2019 C production is supporting household and market food availability. Above-average rainfall forecasted for the September to December period is likely to support another favorable harvest in December-January. This is expected to boost household stocks and support low food prices, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2020. However, localized areas affected by flooding and landslides will likely experience worse outcomes.
• According to ISTEEBU, the prices of staple foods have remained atypically stable between June and October. This is likely the result of several consecutive seasons of average to above-average harvests. Given favorable production prospects for the Season 2020 A season, prices are expected to increase only slightly through the peak of the lean season in November and will likely remain below three-year average levels through May 2020.
• High malaria incidence across the country remains a concern. Information on the extent to which malaria has affected livelihoods is limited, but it is likely that some households are being impacted by the inability of income-earners to work alongside increased nutritional needs and health costs. While there is insufficient evidence to indicate that this is driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, significant health and nutrition interventions are needed.
• According to UNHCR, 900 Burundian refugees returned from Tanzania in the first two weeks of October. That number is about one fifth of the biweekly target implied by the August 2019 agreement between the Governments of Burundi and Tanzania to repatriate all refugees within one year. WFP continues to provide significant levels of humanitarian food assistance to newly arrived returnees and Congolese refugees, which is sustaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in these communities.