Near-average B Season harvests improve food access through September 2022
• Near-average 2022 Season B crop production and access to typical income sources are supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes across Burundi through January 2023. However, poor and very poor households in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2), driven by below-average bean production, high food prices, and below-average income as cross-border trade with Tanzania and Rwanda remain below normal.
• In May 2022, the Institut des Statistiques Economiques du Burundi (ISTEEBU) reported that the national inflation rate was 18 percent, the highest since 2018. This follows a relatively rapid rise in food and fuel prices, driven by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food and fuel prices. In May 2022, the food inflation rate was over 22 percent, around seven points higher than in March 2022. The rising food and fuel prices limit household purchasing power as the high transportation costs are passed onto the consumers.
• In May 2022, staple food prices are 20 to 40 percent above the five-year average and 10 to 50 percent above last year, driven by increasing inflation and high fuel prices. Staple food price projections between June 2022 and January 2023 indicate that staple food prices are likely to be 30 to 50 percent above the five-year average and 45 to 55 percent above last year. Food prices will likely increase the most during the October to December 2022 lean season.
Humanitarian food assistance distributed in May is driving Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) food security outcomes for the approximately 54,800 refugees from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) living in five refugee camps and two transit centers, 9,500 moderately malnourished pregnant and lactating women, and 11,230 children. Around 35,000 children and pregnant and lactating women received specialized nutritious food for stunting prevention. However, the around 3,500 returnees who arrived between January and March 2022 are likely to have exhausted the three-month rations they received upon arrival and will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the A season harvest in September with limited access to income.