Attachments
Key Messages
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Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains from December through May 2026. The expected below-average 2026 Season A harvest will prolong households’ market dependence for food amid elevated prices and reduced income. Border closures with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are limiting cross-border trade and labor opportunities in the west and north. Increased pressure on limited food and income sources — caused by the presence of refugees in the west and returnees in the east — is expected to sustain below-average income and food access in these regions. Staple food prices have stabilized, providing some relief from the rapid inflation and volatility in 2024 and early 2025, but generally remain above the five-year average, driven by high input and transport costs, and are expected to remain elevated through May, driven by the below-average Season A harvest.
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Conflict escalation in December 2025 in eastern DRC led to the displacement of about 90,000 Congolese refugees and 10,000 Burundian returnees into Burundi. Despite the opening of a new camp in Busuma, many remain in transit centers or with host communities in the Imbo Plains.
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The Tanzanian government’s announcement of the closure of Nduta and Nyarugusu refugee camps in Tanzania by May 2026 is expected to drive approximately 93,000 Burundian refugees currently in Tanzania to return to Burundi by May. Most are expected to resettle in eastern Burundi, particularly in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone.
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In November, WFP provided food and cash assistance to approximately 76,000 refugees and asylum seekers, though rations were reduced to 75 percent of daily kilocalorie needs due to funding shortages. Food assistance needs are expected to rise in early 2026, amid limited humanitarian resources, driven by the influx of nearly 90,000 new refugees from the DRC in December 2025, the anticipated return of 93,000 Burundian refugees, and rising needs among poor households in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones due to the poor 2026 Season A harvest.
This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 28, 2025.