Attachments
Key Messages
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains during the lean period of October 2024 to January 2025. The depletion of household food stocks and increased reliance on markets, combined with rising food prices and limited income access, are reducing food access in these areas. The situation is exacerbated by below-average agricultural opportunities in the north and east due to La Niña, the closure of borders with Rwanda in the north, and the effects on both agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities due to flooding and the overflow of Lake Tanganyika in the Imbo Plains.
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to persist in the north and east during the post-harvest period from February to May 2025. Given the anticipated below-average 2025 Season A crop production, household food stocks are expected to be rapidly depleted, maintaining below-average food access for poor and very poor households that are already facing rising food prices and diminished agricultural labor opportunities.
- Among the populations of highest concern are refugees, returnees who exhausted the three-month food assistance received up on arrival, flood-affected IDPs, and very poor households in the north, east, and west. FEWS NET estimates that around 700,000 people are likely to need urgent humanitarian assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with October to December being the peak period.
- Increased food consumption gaps are anticipated for refugees and IDPs between October 2024 and May 2025, due to reduced levels of humanitarian assistance. Due to resource constraints, refugees are currently receiving only 70 percent of their monthly food rations, and food assistance will either be further reduced or remain at the same level during the analysis period.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 31, 2024.
Analysis in brief
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the Northern Lowland livelihood zone during the lean period from October to December 2024, as well as through early 2025. Due to the rapid depletion of food stocks from own crop production, households are likely to rely predominantly on market purchases for food access in a context of reduced purchasing power for poor and very poor households:
- Food purchases are competing with expenses for school fees and agricultural inputs for 2025 Season A amid well above-average staple food prices.
- La Niña conditions expected from October to December 2024 are likely to result in below-average rainfall, leading to reduced agricultural activities, cash crop production, and livestock activities, which in turn will decrease labor opportunities for about 40 percent of the total population.
- The closure of borders with Rwanda has reduced cross-border economic opportunities, diminishing income access and increasing food gaps in the north.
Macroeconomic conditions are worsening food insecurity across the country. A persistent drop in the export of cash crops and minerals is exacerbating the country’s significant trade deficit, with related macroeconomic indicators remaining at critical levels. This precarious economic situation is the root cause of the instability of the Burundi franc (BIF) and the declining official exchange rates, which are currently around 250 percent higher compared to the parallel market. The reduced capacity for imports is forcing traders to increasingly depend on the parallel market, resulting in higher prices for imported goods, including food and essential items. Fuel, which has been in short supply since early 2024, is particularly affected. This scarcity has repercussions across various sectors of the economy, notably increasing transportation costs and food prices.
The rise in the water table and the level of Lake Tanganyika: Driven by above-average rainfall in 2023 and early 2024, the water table and Lake Tanganyika levels remain elevated, even during the dry period from June to September (Figure 1). The current levels of the water table and Lake Tanganyika put households and their assets at risk of flooding, specifically in the Imbo Plains livelihood zone as the rainy season begins. The floods and the overflow of Lake Tanganyika led to the displacement of 300,000 people and the destruction of 40,000 hectares of crops in early 2024.
Increased food consumption gaps are expected throughout the analysis period for IDPs, refugees, and returnees, who primarily depend on humanitarian food assistance and have limited access to their own income and food sources. This population includes 102,824 IDPs and 347,100 refugees, registered asylum seekers, and returnees needing life-saving aid.
Currently, refugees receive only 70 percent of the standard food ration due to resource constraints, and fewer than 25 percent of IDPs are covered by food assistance. Refugees, especially within their first two years of arrival, cannot meet essential non-food needs and will likely need livelihood interventions after their three-month food assistance package is exhausted. They are expected to face food consumption gaps or engage in stressed coping mechanisms during the projected period. Further reductions in food assistance are expected, leading to persistent Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for most IDPs and refugees between June 2024 and January 2025.
Food security context
Agriculture: In Burundi, subsistence and smallholder farming are widely practiced, with most households cultivating small plots of land. Farmers have limited access to improved agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, and they primarily rely on rainfed farming, leading to low production despite the availability of three different growing seasons each year. The high population density exacerbates land scarcity and results in fragmented land holdings, further restricting agricultural productivity. Over 90 percent of the population depends on agriculture, which is particularly vulnerable to weather hazards, especially in the northern and northeastern regions. Delayed rainfall or dry spells significantly reduce crop yields, and the degradation of natural resources—including landslides, soil erosion, and loss of soil fertility—compounds these challenges.
In October, Season A planting starts, coinciding with the harvest of Season C. It also marks the beginning of the major lean season (October to December), as food stocks become depleted and most poor and very poor households face food consumption gaps (Figure 2). Planting of Season A crops, weeding, and harvesting for Season C are carried out during this period, providing labor opportunities to poor households. Burundi faces severe nutrition outcomes, with over 55 percent of children stunted, according to UNICEF, indicative of chronic malnutrition caused by cumulative long-term poor dietary diversity, inadequate healthcare services, and frequent disease outbreaks. The Season B harvest covers 50 percent of annual crop production and plays a crucial role in increasing access to food, stabilizing food prices, and providing employment opportunities for poor households, thereby increasing their purchasing power and access to sufficient food. The Season C harvest runs from October through December and accounts for 15 percent of annual food production, while the Season A harvest is available from December to February and contributes 35 percent of annual food production.
Burundi's economy is among the least developed in the world, characterized by high levels of poverty and unemployment, limited industrialization, and poor infrastructure. The country's economy is heavily reliant on rainfed agriculture, which is susceptible to weather variations and environmental degradation. High inflation rates and the rapid currency devaluation further diminish households' purchasing capacity, making it difficult for many poor households to access sufficient food. Burundi has recorded a high trade deficit of about 86 million USD, coupled with a decline in exports of cash crops and minerals, accelerating macroeconomic challenges.
Conflict: In 2015, Burundi faced a major political crisis and instability following the presidential term extension, which sparked widespread protests and a violent crackdown by security forces. The unrest led to an attempted coup, escalating violence, and ongoing political instability, displacing hundreds of thousands of people to neighboring countries. Those displaced people are currently returning to their home villages with the support of the government, UN, and humanitarian agencies. However, due to localized floodings and landslides, Burundi has over 300,000 IDPs who seek urgent humanitarian assistance. The mass displacement disrupted farming activities, resulting in significant losses of lives and livelihoods.