Key Messages
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in Imbo Plains and Northern Lowlands during the post-harvest period of June to September 2024. Flooding and the overflow of Tanganyika Lake have led to below-average crops production and income sources in the west. Additionally, limited cross-border opportunities have reduced income access and purchasing capacity of poor households in the north.
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to persist in the north and west and extend to the east during the lean period from October 2024 to January 2025. Household food access is expected to be reduced due to the rapid depletion of food stocks from own crop production, along with below-average agricultural activities limiting access to agricultural labor opportunities, the primary source of income for poor and very poor households. Moreover, La Niña conditions and anticipated food price increases will likely worsen the acute food insecurity situation. The semi-arid areas in the north, east, and west are particularly exposed to the anticipated below-average rainfall towards the end of 2024.
- The areas of highest concern include flood-affected IDPs, refugees, and returnees who exhausted the three-month food assistance received upon arrival. Poor and very poor households are also among the highest concern populations. The total number of individuals affected is estimated to be 700,000 people, with November being the peak period.
- Despite ongoing humanitarian assistance, a reduction in food assistance is anticipated. Refugees are currently receiving only 70 percent of their monthly food rations due to resource constraints, while less than 25 percent of IDPs have received food assistance. It is likely that the food assistance levels will further scale down during the analysis period. As a result, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are anticipated for refugees and IDPs between June 2024 and January 2025.
Learn more
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 30, 2024. Follow these links for additional information:
- Previous Burundi Food Security Outlook: February to September 2024
- Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
- FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
- Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
- FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis