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Key Messages
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Ongoing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands, and Imbo Plains are expected to continue through September. Below-average Season A harvests due to October-December 2025 rainfall delays and deficits, coupled with high food prices, are driving food insecurity. Additionally, the east is experiencing pressure from large populations of refugees and returning Burundians while ongoing border closures with Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are constraining market supply and incomes in the west and north. As a result, households remain highly market-dependent amid low purchasing power.
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The Eastern Dry Plateaus livelihood zone is expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during April-May (the typical lean period) ahead of the June 2026 Season B harvest, driven by early depletion of household food stocks following localized below-average crop production. Rising food prices, limited agricultural labor income, and pressure from refugees hosted in the area will drive constrained food access during this short lean period.
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Season B production is anticipated to be near average with harvests starting in May; however, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands, and Imbo Plains from June to September 2026. Most households will need to allocate a portion of their crop to repay debts incurred for food and agricultural inputs, while high food prices and localized below-average production will continue to limit food access.
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FEWS NET estimates 750,000–999,999 people will need urgent humanitarian assistance, with needs peaking between April-May. The most vulnerable groups include refugees, returnees who have exhausted their assistance package, flood-displaced populations, and poor households where rainfall deficits resulted in below-average 2026 Season A production and subsequent low food stocks.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 27, 2026.