Below-average rainfall in November resulting in poor localized 2021 Season A production in the north
According to NOAA, USGS, and ICPAC seasonal forecasts, cumulative rainfall during the February-April main rainy season in Burundi is most likely to be average, with localized below and above-average rainfall. National average rainfall is expected to result in near-average national 2021 Season B crop production, whereas localized above and below-average rainfall will negatively affect 2021 Season B bean production, which is sensitive to moisture shocks.
Increased supply from 2021 Season A harvests eased prices from December to January, sweet potato, bean, and maize prices decreased 36, 22, and 11 percent, respectively, increasing food access. Due to localized below-average Season A bean production, however, bean prices in the Northern Lowland livelihood zone decreased to a lesser degree than previous years. Bean prices are expected to rise rapidly in March following household stock exhaustion.
Below-average rainfall occurred in lowland areas in November 2020, at the critical flowering stage, destroying beans, maize, and sorghum crops in localized areas. Poor 2021 Season A production, above-average food prices, and limited alternative income sources due to border closures are driving in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones through May. For some worst-affected households for whom more than 50 percent of 2021 Season A crops have been destroyed by dryness, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely through May 2021. Due to expected localized below-average rainfall, resulting in below-average 2021 Season B harvests, and inaccessible cross-border income earning opportunities due to border closures, the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zones will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through the projected analysis period.