Above-average market supply from 2021 B crop production driving stable food prices
In August and September, most areas in Burundi will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, driven by acceptable food access provided by food stocks from the above-average 2021 B Season production and market purchases. Food access on markets is above average due to stable food prices and income earned from above-average labor opportunities related to the extension of 2021 C Season cropped area, heavily promoted by the government. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone through January 2022, driven by a seasonal decrease of own crop production and below-average cross-border income access, resulting from the COVID-19 related closure of the Tanzania border to human movement.
Unexpected rainfall occurred in the second dekad of August, the typical dry period, is expected to result in above-average 2021 C Season production. However, likely La Niña conditions from October to December are expected to lead to localized below-average rainfall in southern and eastern parts of the country. This forecasted below-average rainfall will likely decrease 2022 A Season bean and maize production in localized areas of the Eastern and Northern Lowlands livelihood zone.
Bean prices decreased 10 to 20 percent between June and July. Above-average 2021 B Season bean production and favorable market supplies drove the decline. Maize prices have been stable over the same period, though above average and 2020 levels. Seasonal food price increases are expected beginning in September as food stocks decrease.
UNHCR facilitated the return of 169,065 returnees between September 2017 and July 2021. Around half returned after September 2020 and nearly 80 percent arrived from Tanzania and are primarily hosted in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone. Upon arrival, returnees receive three months of assistance. Thus, 20,000 returnees who arrived between June and August are still receiving food assistance, driving None! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes, as well as 51,069 refugees from DRC who still receive humanitarian food assistance. However, nearly 42,000 returnees who arrived between December 2020 and May 2021, have already exhausted their 90 days of assistance, and are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food outcomes in August. IDPs who didn’t receive food assistance and who do not have access to their normal livelihoods are also facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.