ReliefWeb

The onset of the rains is earlier than usual this year. Land preparation is ongoing in most parts of Burundi and some households have already planted. The normal planting period is between mid-September and mid-October. Maize is the main grain cultivated this season, predominantly in mid and high altitude zones. Due to the rains, pastures are currently regenerating. The poor performance of last season has caused poor households to run out of food stocks earlier than normal this year, and these households have become dependent on market purchases as their predominant source of food staples. This increased market demand, along with low market supply, has caused staple food prices at many markets to rise to levels well above last year and the 5-year average. The peak of the lean season will occur in November-December as usual, and most households will rely on market purchases until the first harvest in late December. Banana Xanthomonas wilt, cassava mosaic, and cassava brown streak are threatening crop production, especially in the South-Eastern regions, though there have been significant government efforts to address the problem.

Seasonal progress to date: The main agricultural activities at this time of the year are focused on finalizing land preparation and sowing. Rains have started earlier than normal, and maize is the predominant crop grown during this season. The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum 32 weather forecast states that Burundi has a 45% probability of above-normal rainfall, 35% probability of near-normal rainfall, and 20% probability of below-normal rainfall during the September-December time period.

Markets and trade: For many markets, maize, cassava flour, and sorghum prices are well above last year's levels. For example, the prices of these commodities at markets in Muyinga, Gitega, and Ruyigi have been 18-72% higher than prices at this time last year. The market supply of food, especially for bananas and cassava, has started decreasing due to the crop diseases mentioned above. For other staple commodities, demand is generally increasing due to household stock deficits. Traders are also reportedly stocking some commodities, such as maize and rice, in anticipation of higher prices towards the end of the year when the tax exemption will be lifted.

Health and nutrition: The Tanzanian government has announced that the Mtabila camp, which currently houses approximately 36,000 refugees, will be closing at the end of the year. Preparations in Burundi are currently being made in terms of temporary housing, land, and food aid to assist households who may return to Burundi when the camp closes.

Likely Trend: Food availability is declining, especially for poor households, and will be at its lowest levels in November. Farm labor opportunities will continue to be available until the harvests in December-January. Food prices are expected to continue to rise until the first harvests. Due to the rains, pasture and animal conditions are expected to improve, and milk prices will likely fall during the course of the season.