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Anticipatory Action to mitigate the impact of El Niño induced floods in Burundi
In November 2023, the World Food Programme (WFP) in collaboration with the Burundi Red Cross successfully activated the Anticipatory Action (AA) Plan designed to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of people who were at risk of heavy rainfall caused by the El Niño phenomenon and potential floods in Rumonge and Muhuta communes in Rumonge province in Burundi.
Burundi, being a landlocked, low-income, and food-deficit country, faces heightened vulnerability to climate-related disasters. The predominant practice of subsistence farming by 90% of the population leaves them susceptible to annual climatic shocks, such as excessive rainfall, floods, landslides, hail, and strong winds, causing widespread destruction to agricultural livelihoods across the country. The country is regularly exposed to climate related disasters, in particular flooding.
WFP has been providing tecnical support to the Burundi Red Cross (BRC) with early warning and anticipatory action since 2020. Specifically, WFP has supported the BRC with the development of an Anticipatory Action Plan for floods, in collaboration with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and the Burundi Geographical Institute (Institut Géographique du Burundi - IGEBU). The plan set the triggers based on the forecasts of exceptionally heavy rainfall from ICPAC at the regional level and the IGEBU national 7-day forecast. These triggers were established through a collaborative effort to enhance a harmonized approach for triggering anticipatory actions.
Regular forecast monitoring was done following the ICPAC seasonal forecast (july 2023) which indicated a high probability of the El Nino phenomenon increasing the chance of above average rainfall that could lead to serious flooding in the East African region between October and December 2023.
This seasonal forecast allowed teams to initiate the readiness actions to prepare for a potential anticipatory action activation well in advance. These actions included: geographical targeting to identify the most at-risk areas, conducting a market analysis to determine the appropriate cash transfer value, and household targeting and registration to establish lists of beneficiaries for anticipatory assistance.
The activation trigger threshold was reached on October 31st when both regional and national levels announced exceptionally heavy rain over Burundi.
WFP and the Burundi Red Cross collaborated to effectively disseminate early warning messages to more than 10,000 people in Rumonge and Muhuta districts. This prompt action occurred immediately after the trigger was reached, enabling households to take timely actions to mitigate the impact of floods on their livelihoods. Additionally, the distribution of cash transfers happened from the 10 to 14th November (3 days ahead of heavy rains and 12 days ahead of flood’s peak) in the same districts. This action provided 8,900 people with US$ 81.4 per household, to meet basic food and other essentials needs.
This proactive and collaborative implementation has been made possible through the multi-year funding and investment in Anticipatory Action systems supported by the European Comission Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO). With a total cost of US$ 162,000 this activation empowered targeted communities to make informed decisions to safeguard their lives.