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West and Central Africa is facing an unprecedented food security crisis for 2 consecutive years due to the compounded consequences of the 2021 cereal deficit, deteriorating security situation, socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions to the food and energy supply due to the Ukraine conflict. The 2021 cropping season was also characterized by extremely poor rains that resulted in a cereal production deficit of roughly 9.5 million tons in West Africa.
The COVID-19 pandemic also increased the budget deficit, up to a regional average of -6.4% in 2021, further restricting fiscal space4. Governments were forced to borrow massively, increasing the ratio of government debt to GDP in many countries where ratios were already high (e.g. Cabo Verde (157%), Sao Tome & Principe (88%), Ghana (81.8%) and Senegal (73%) in 2021). Higher global food and energy prices combined with the lasting effects of the COVID 19 pandemic have strongly impacted the economic performance of the sub-region in 2022, with 11 out of 15 West African countries registering a deceleration in their GDP growth rate. This situation also pushed up domestic food prices5 and the Ukraine conflict has compounded to pre-existing inflationary pressures. The top 4 annual average inflation rates projected for 2022 are Ghana (27.2%), Sierra Leone (25.9%), Nigeria (18.9 %) and Burkina Faso (14.2%); an increase is projected in 14 out of 15 West Africa countries.
Soaring food prices pose a significant threat to food security by reducing the purchasing power of millions of people, especially vulnerable groups. This is mainly due to the dominant share of food weight in the consumer price index (CPI) basket. The average share of food expenditure of households in West Africa is 43.1% of the total, with households in Mali, The Gambia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso spending more than 50%