Attachments
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected between October 2024 and May 2025 in hard-to-access areas with a high presence of internally displaced people (IDPs). In Soum, despite some improvement compared to last year, low production levels will not be enough to prevent Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes between October 2024 and January 2025; food aid remains the primary source of food. The attempted terrorist attacks in Djibo continue to restrict population movements and limit access to marginal sources of food and income. Additionally, there are challenges in market supply, which occasionally face prolonged shortages. Between February and May 2025, vegetable production and marginal incomes will not be enough to cover food deficits, requiring continued assistance to prevent Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
- Needs will begin to rise seasonally at the start of 2025 and continue until the end of the projection period, with 1.5 to 2 million people requiring food aid between February and May 2025, mainly in hard-to-reach areas with a high presence of IDPs in the Nord, Sahel, Est, and Centre-Nord regions. While vegetable production could help mitigate severe deterioration in food security in areas where water points are accessible, this will not be the case in areas where this resource is limited or non-existent. Poor households will be exposed to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or worse.
- Although national agricultural production is likely to be above the five-year average, cereal prices are expected to exceed seasonal averages from October 2024 to May 2025 due to the replenishment of public and private stocks, reduced imports, and higher-than-typical flows to Niger.
The analysis presented here is based on the information available as of October 15, 2024.